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1540 European drought

The 1540 drought in Europe was a climatic event in Europe. In various palaeoclimatic analyses the temperature and precipitation regimes were reconstructed and compared to present-day conditions.

On the basis of historical records Wetter et al. (2014)[1] derived that during an eleven-month period there was little rain in Europe, possibly qualifying as a megadrought.[2] These conclusions however were questioned by Büntgen et al. (2015)[3] on the basis of additional data (tree rings).

Orth et al. (2016)[4] concluded that in summer 1540 the mean temperature was above the 1966–2015 mean and with a probability of 20% exceeded that of the 2003 summer; however, the study's mean reconstruction suggests that the summer of 2003 was still overall hotter across much of Europe.

Scientific evaluation and discussion

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The assumption of a megadrought in the year 1540 is primarily supported by more than 300 contemporary chronicles from across Europe, which consistently describe the effects of prolonged drought and heat, such as a significant precipitation deficit, extremely low levels of major rivers, widespread wildfires, the lowering of groundwater levels (resulting in the drying up of wells), as well as severe consequences for agriculture and livestock farming. Particularly reliable sources include the extensive weather diary of Marcin Biem, the rector of the University of Kraków, whose records allow for the statistical reconstruction of precipitation levels in the Kraków region for the year 1540.[5]

In contrast, a study published in 2015, based on the analysis of growth rings of various European tree species (dendrochronology, also known as tree-ring dating), concluded that the conducted analyses did not provide evidence of an exceptional drought period throughout 1540.[6] In their reply, the authors of the aforementioned study (Wetter et al.) pointed out that growth rings may sometimes incompletely or belatedly reflect hot and dry extremes, emphasizing the fact that discrepancies between instrumentally determined and dendrochronological data have often occurred in recent times during climatic "outliers" (the "divergence problem").[7][8]

A publication from 2016 assumes that the average summer temperature in 1540 exceeded the corresponding average values of the 1966 to 2015 time series and, with a 20 percent probability, even surpassed the heatwave of the summer of 2003.[9] In this context, the existing uncertainties regarding the available data, which hinder reliable temperature reconstructions for short-term anomalies during the last millennium, were also mentioned.

The weather conditions of 1540 present a paradoxical situation since this exceptional year occurred during the Little Ice Age, which lasted approximately from the early 15th to the mid-19th century. However, the question raised by some studies focuses more on whether this singular event could serve as a "blueprint" for future climatic developments in this geographical context.[5] According to several scientific studies, there has been a clear tendency worldwide towards the formation of warm and dry climates in recent decades.[10] With further warming, the disappearance of existing climate zones and the establishment of new ones in Central Europe will likely occur,[11] similar to what happened at least to some extent almost 500 years ago.

Description

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The Schwedenfass [de] in the Staatlicher Hofkeller Würzburg [de] was created to host the "once-in-a-millennium wine" of 1540

The Swiss historian Christian Pfister described the events of 1540 in a newspaper interview:[12]

For eleven months, there was practically no rain, temperatures were five to seven degrees [Celsius] [9–13 °F] above the normal values for the 20th century, in many places summer temperatures must have exceeded 40 °C (104 °F). Many forests in Europe went up in flames, choking smoke darkened the sun, not a single thunderstorm was reported in the summer of 1540. Water was already scarce in May, wells and springs dried up, mills stood still, people starved, livestock was slaughtered. Estimates are that in 1540 half a million people died, mostly from dysentery.

Everything began in northern Italy, with a winter that felt like a July. Not a single drop fell from October 1539 to early April 1540. Then the drought advanced north. ... July brought such a frightful ember-like heat that churches made prayers while the Rhine, Elbe and Seine could be waded through without getting one's feet wet. Where there was still water, the warm broth acquired a green colour, and dead fish floated belly-up. Water levels in Lake Constance sank to record low levels, and Lindau actually became connected to the mainland. Soon the surface water had completely evaporated, soils broke up, some dry cracks were so wide that a foot would fit into them. ...

The first grapes were already ripe by 12 August, in Alsace fruit trees bloomed a second time, in Lindau it was actually enough for a second cherry harvest. At Lake Constance and in Bayreuth wine eventually became cheaper than water, and in Limoges winemakers were harvesting roasted grapes, from which they obtained sherry-like wine, which ... made one quickly drunk.[12][13]

From the city of Münden there is a description of how in the year 1540 the ducal wine from the vineyard at Questenberg [de] was "so excellent" that it was preferred to foreign wine.[14]

In the Swiss village of Goldiwil [de], "desperate people went over 500 m [1,600 ft] up and down in elevation every day, only to fill a few barrels of water in Lake Thun".[15]

City fires

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In the year 1540, there was an unusually high number of city fires, surpassed only during the height of the Thirty Years' War, in a year without major war damages. In Einbeck, the Kumme Wasser, a stream flowing through the city, was likely dried up. On "Annentag" (the day of Saint Anne), July 26th,[16] a fire broke out, and the entire city was destroyed in the Einbeck city fire, with between 100 and 500 people dying. There are records of 32 additional city fires in German territory for the year 1540. The fires occurred during a time of political and religious conflicts surrounding the Reformation. In many cases, arson was suspected as the cause of the conflagrations, allegedly motivated by anti-Protestant sentiments. Vagabonds and beggars were often scapegoated, leading to a genuine paranoia regarding arsonists. The year 1540 also became known as the "Mordbrenner-Jahr" (year of arsonists).[17]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Wetter, Oliver; et al. (2014). "The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case". Climatic Change. 125 (3–4): 349–363. Bibcode:2014ClCh..125..349W. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2. hdl:20.500.11850/86091. S2CID 153965334.
  2. ^ "Megadrought". Encyclopedia of Environmental Change. 2014. doi:10.4135/9781446247501.n2421. ISBN 9781446247112.
  3. ^ Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Carrer, Marco; Krusic, Paul J.; Hayes, Michael; Esper, Jan (2015). "Commentary to Wetter et al. (2014): Limited tree-ring evidence for a 1540 European 'Megadrought'". Climatic Change. 131 (2): 183–190. Bibcode:2015ClCh..131..183B. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1423-1. S2CID 54877607.
  4. ^ Orth, Rene; Vogel, Martha M.; Luterbacher, Jürg; Pfister, Christian; Seneviratne, Sonia I. (2016). "Did European temperatures in 1540 exceed present-day records?". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (11): 114021. Bibcode:2016ERL....11k4021O. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114021. hdl:21.11116/0000-0000-DBEF-D. S2CID 157372989.
  5. ^ a b Wetter, Oliver; Pfister, Christian; Werner, Johannes P.; Zorita, Eduardo; Wagner, Sebastian; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Herget, Jürgen; Grünewald, Uwe; Luterbacher, Jürg; Alcoforado, Maria-Joao; Barriendos, Mariano; Bieber, Ursula; Brázdil, Rudolf; Burmeister, Karl H.; Camenisch, Chantal; Contino, Antonio; Dobrovolný, Petr; Glaser, Rüdiger; Himmelsbach, Iso; Kiss, Andrea; Kotyza, Oldřich; Labbé, Thomas; Limanówka, Danuta; Litzenburger, Laurent; Nordl, Øyvind; Pribyl, Kathleen; Retsö, Dag; Riemann, Dirk; Rohr, Christian; Siegfried, Werner; Söderberg, Johan; Spring, Jean-Laurent (August 2014). "The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case". Climatic Change. 125 (3–4): 349–363. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2.
  6. ^ Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Carrer, Marco; Krusic, Paul J.; Hayes, Michael; Esper, Jan (July 2015). "Commentary to Wetter et al. (2014): Limited tree-ring evidence for a 1540 European 'Megadrought'". Climatic Change. 131 (2): 183–190. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1423-1.
  7. ^ Pfister, Christian; Wetter, Oliver; Brázdil, Rudolf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Glaser, Rüdiger; Luterbacher, Jürg; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Zorita, Eduardo; Alcoforado, Maria-Joao; Barriendos, Mariano; Bieber, Ursula; Burmeister, Karl H.; Camenisch, Chantal; Contino, Antonio; Grünewald, Uwe; Herget, Jürgen; Himmelsbach, Iso; Labbé, Thomas; Limanówka, Danuta; Litzenburger, Laurent; Kiss, Andrea; Kotyza, Oldřich; Nordli, Øyvind; Pribyl, Kathleen; Retsö, Dag; Riemann, Dirk; Rohr, Christian; Siegfried, Werner; Spring, Jean-Laurent; Söderberg, Johan; Wagner, Sebastian; Werner, Johannes P. (July 2015). "Tree-rings and people – different views on the 1540 Megadrought. Reply to Büntgen et al. 2015". Climatic Change. 131 (2): 191–198. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1429-8.
  8. ^ D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Wilson, Rob; Liepert, Beate; Cherubini, Paolo (February 2008). "On the 'Divergence Problem' in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes" (PDF). Global and Planetary Change. 60 (3–4): 289–305. Bibcode:2008GPC....60..289D. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.004. S2CID 3537918.
  9. ^ Orth, Rene; Vogel, Martha M; Luterbacher, Jürg; Pfister, Christian; Seneviratne, Sonia I (1 November 2016). "Did European temperatures in 1540 exceed present-day records?". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (11): 114021. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114021. hdl:21.11116/0000-0000-DBEF-D.
  10. ^ Chan, Duo; Wu, Qigang (28 August 2015). "Significant anthropogenic-induced changes of climate classes since 1950". Scientific Reports. 5 (1): 13487. doi:10.1038/srep13487. PMC 4551970. PMID 26316255.
  11. ^ Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Kutzbach, John E. (3 April 2007). "Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 104 (14): 5738–5742. doi:10.1073/pnas.0606292104. PMC 1851561. PMID 17389402.
  12. ^ a b Andreas Frey (11 August 2018). "Europas vernichtende Jahrtausenddürre". Spektrum.de. Retrieved 12 August 2018.
  13. ^ German:

    Elf Monate fiel damals so gut wie kein Regen, die Temperatur lag fünf bis sieben Grad über den Normalwerten des 20. Jahrhunderts, verbreitet muss die Temperatur im Hochsommer über 40 Grad geklettert sein. Unzählige Waldgebiete in Europa gingen in Flammen auf, beißender Rauch trübte das Sonnenlicht, im ganzen Sommer 1540 wurde kein einziges Gewitter registriert. Schon im Mai wurde das Wasser knapp, Brunnen und Quellen fielen trocken, die Mühlen standen still, die Leute hungerten, das Vieh wurde notgeschlachtet. In Europa starben in jenem Jahr schätzungsweise eine Million Menschen, die meisten an Ruhr.

    Alles begann in Norditalien, mit einem Winter, der sich wie ein Juli anfühlte. Kein Tropfen fiel von Oktober 1539 bis Anfang April 1540. Dann griff die Dürre auf den Norden über. ... Der Juli brachte eine solche fürchterliche Gluthitze, dass die Kirchen Bittgebete aussandten, während Rhein, Elbe und Seine trockenen Fußes durchwatet werden konnten. Dort, wo noch Wasser floss, färbte sich die warme Brühe grün, Fische trieben darin kieloben. Der Bodenseepegel sank auf Rekordniveau, Lindau war sogar mit dem Festland verbunden. Bald verdunstete das Oberflächenwasser vollständig, die Böden platzten auf, manche Trockenrisse waren so groß, dass ein Fuß darin Platz fand.

    Die ersten Trauben waren schon am 12. August reif, im Elsass blühten bald die Obstbäume erneut, in Lindau reichte es sogar für eine zweite Kirschernte. Am Bodensee und in Bayreuth war Wein irgendwann billiger als Wasser, und in Limoges ernteten die Winzer geröstete Trauben, aus denen sie sherryähnlichen Wein gewannen, der sehr schnell betrunken machte.
  14. ^ Wilhelm Lotze. Geschichte der Stadt Münden nebst Umgebung mit besonderer Hervorhebung der Begebenheiten des dreißigjährigen und siebenjährigen Krieges, 1878, p. 46.
  15. ^ Andreas, Frey (4 August 2018). "Elf Monate ohne Regen: Die Angst vor der Megadürre des Jahres 1540 geht um". NZZ (in German). Retrieved 12 August 2018.
  16. ^ Pfister nennt in When Europe Was Burning den 4. August als Tag des Brandes. Seine Quellenangabe ist nicht nachvollziehbar. Wahrscheinlich handelt es sich um einen Irrtum, andere Quellen nennen übereinstimmend den 26. Juli, zum Beispiel Andreas Heege (2005), "26. Juli 1540, 18.00 – 22.00 Uhr: Martin Luther, »Hans Worst« und der Stadtbrand von Einbeck", open access, Mitteilungen der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Archäologie des Mittelalters und der Neuzeit, vol. 16, doi:10.11588/dgamn.2005.0.18473 Oder Cornel Zwierlein (2011), "5. Klima und Brandkonjunkturen", Der gezähmte Prometheus: Feuer und Sicherheit zwischen Früher Neuzeit und Moderne, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, pp. 102–110, ISBN 9783525317082
  17. ^ Christian Pfister (March 2017), Gerrit Jasper Schenk (ed.), "When Europe Was Burning: The Multi-season Mega-drought of 1540 and Arsonist Paranoia", Historical Disaster Experiences, Transcultural Research – Heidelberg Studies on Asia and Europe in a Global Context, Springer, pp. 155–185, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_8, ISBN 9783319491639

Literature

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