Wikipedia

1988 United States presidential election in Tennessee

For related races, see 1988 United States presidential election.

The 1988 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 8, 1988. All 50 states and the District of Columbia were part of the 1988 United States presidential election. Tennessee voters chose 11 electors to the Electoral College, which selected the president and vice president. Tennessee was won by incumbent United States Vice President George H. W. Bush of Texas, who was running against Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. Bush ran with Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as Vice President, and Dukakis ran with Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen.

1988 United States presidential election in Tennessee
← 1984 November 8, 1988 1992 →
 
Nominee George H. W. Bush Michael Dukakis
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dan Quayle Lloyd Bentsen
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 947,233 679,794
Percentage 57.89% 41.55%
President before election

Ronald Reagan
Republican

Elected President

George H. W. Bush
Republican

Tennessee weighed in for this election as eight points more Republican than the national average. Tennessee was the only state to vote more Republican than in 1984. As of the 2020 presidential election, this was the last time the Republican candidate carried Davidson County (home of Nashville) and Shelby County (home of Memphis), both of which have become staunch, and the only, Democratic strongholds into the 21st century.[1] Hardeman County, Tennessee would not vote for a Republican again until 2016 United States presidential election

Background

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The Republican presidential nominee won Tennessee in every presidential election since 1968 except for Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976.[2]

However, Republican victories in the senatorial elections of 1966 and 1970 were undone by Democratic victories in 1976 and 1984. Ned McWherter's victory in 1986 gubernatorial election also restored Democratic control since 1974. Voter identification among the Democrats fell from 42% to 32% between 1981 and 1985, while identification among the Republicans rose from 25 to 29%.[3]

Campaign

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Primary

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U.S. Senator Al Gore, a favorite son, won Tennessee in the Democratic primary with 72% of the vote.[4][5] Gore won 87% of the white vote.[6] The racial composition of the primary was 73% white and 27% black.[7]

Bill Brock, a former member of the U.S. Senate from Tennessee, served as the chair of Bob Dole's national campaign. McWherter served as the chair of Gore's campaign in the south.[8] 37% of white voters participated in the Republican primary.[9]

General

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The regional political divide in Tennessee between the Republican eastern half and Democratic western half dated back to the American Civil War.[10] Stephanie Chivers, the director of Bush's campaign in the state, stated that they needed a 125,000 margin of victory in the eastern part of the state to counteract Democratic support in the rest of the state.[11] Both of Bush's visits in the state were in Democratic areas in order for him to be "in there with the Reagan/McWherter Democrats" according to Chivers. Quayle's five visits to the state were in the east.[12]

Peter Goelz, a Democratic politician from Kansas City, was selected to be the political director of Dukakis's campaign in the state. He did not arrive until August and he lacked knowledge about the state's politics. Chip Forrester, the executive director of the Tennessee Democratic Party, criticized Dukakis for not utilizing McWherter during the campaign despite his popularity in rural counties. McWherter and other southern governors filmed an endorsement of Dukakis at the National Governors' Conference meeting, but it was never aired on television in Tennessee.[5]

65% of white voters supported Bush while 34% supported Dukakis.[13][14] Bush received 65% of the vote in the east, 55% in the middle, and 53% in the west. Bush won 73 of the state's 95 counties, including the four most populous counties of Shelby, Davidson, Knox, and Hamilton. Dukakis failed to win any metropolitan areas. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Sasser won reelection in the concurrent senatorial election and the Democrats maintained their control of the Tennessee General Assembly despite Bush's victory.[15]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		George
Bush
Republican 		Michael
Dukakis
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[16] October 3–5, 1988 829 RV 46% 41% 13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[16] October 26–28, 1988 813 LV 51% 41% 8%

Results

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1988 United States presidential election in Tennessee
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George H. W. Bush 947,233 57.89% 11
Democratic Michael Dukakis 679,794 41.55% 0
Independent Ron Paul 2,041 0.12% 0
Independent David Duke 1,807 0.11% 0
Independent Earl Dodge 1,807 0.11% 0
Independent Lenora Fulani 1,334 0.08% 0
Independent Lyndon LaRouche 873 0.05% 0
Independent James Warren 718 0.04% 0
Independent Willa Kenoyer 358 0.02% 0
Write-Ins 285 0.02% 0
Totals 1,636,250 100.0% 11

Results by county

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County[17] George H.W. Bush
Republican 		Michael Dukakis
Democratic 		Ron Paul
Independent 		David Duke
Independent 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # %
Anderson 15,056 60.74% 9,589 38.68% 35 0.14% 108 0.44% 5,467 22.06% 24,788
Bedford 4,856 54.32% 4,046 45.26% 9 0.10% 28 0.31% 810 9.06% 8,939
Benton 2,167 43.26% 2,826 56.42% 1 0.02% 15 0.30% -659 -13.16% 5,009
Bledsoe 1,858 58.48% 1,274 40.10% 5 0.16% 40 1.26% 584 18.38% 3,177
Blount 20,027 67.26% 9,602 32.25% 38 0.13% 109 0.37% 10,425 35.01% 29,776
Bradley 15,829 71.85% 6,122 27.79% 16 0.07% 64 0.29% 9,707 44.06% 22,031
Campbell 5,197 55.19% 4,188 44.48% 5 0.05% 26 0.28% 1,009 10.71% 9,416
Cannon 1,604 47.91% 1,726 51.55% 4 0.12% 14 0.42% -122 -3.64% 3,348
Carroll 5,635 57.32% 4,151 42.23% 3 0.03% 41 0.42% 1,484 15.09% 9,830
Carter 12,036 71.74% 4,634 27.62% 18 0.11% 90 0.54% 7,402 44.12% 16,778
Cheatham 4,132 56.99% 3,067 42.30% 15 0.21% 36 0.50% 1,065 14.69% 7,250
Chester 2,781 61.05% 1,757 38.57% 2 0.04% 15 0.33% 1,024 22.48% 4,555
Claiborne 4,071 57.48% 2,977 42.04% 6 0.08% 28 0.40% 1,094 15.44% 7,082
Clay 1,291 51.78% 1,183 47.45% 19 0.76% 0 0.00% 108 4.33% 2,493
Cocke 5,430 71.65% 2,115 27.91% 9 0.12% 25 0.33% 3,315 43.74% 7,579
Coffee 7,837 57.56% 5,686 41.76% 29 0.21% 63 0.46% 2,151 15.80% 13,615
Crockett 2,214 55.77% 1,742 43.88% 14 0.35% 0 0.00% 472 11.89% 3,970
Cumberland 7,557 65.18% 3,964 34.19% 22 0.19% 51 0.44% 3,593 30.99% 11,594
Davidson 98,599 52.18% 89,270 47.25% 299 0.16% 778 0.41% 9,329 4.93% 188,946
Decatur 2,286 54.55% 1,880 44.86% 7 0.17% 18 0.43% 406 9.69% 4,191
DeKalb 2,098 45.80% 2,452 53.53% 6 0.13% 25 0.55% -354 -7.73% 4,581
Dickson 5,343 50.71% 5,129 48.68% 13 0.12% 51 0.48% 214 2.03% 10,536
Dyer 6,508 63.54% 3,690 36.02% 5 0.05% 40 0.39% 2,818 27.52% 10,243
Fayette 3,573 51.63% 3,292 47.57% 11 0.16% 45 0.65% 281 4.06% 6,921
Fentress 3,103 62.16% 1,856 37.18% 2 0.04% 31 0.62% 1,247 24.98% 4,992
Franklin 5,381 49.43% 5,442 49.99% 16 0.15% 47 0.43% -61 -0.56% 10,886
Gibson 8,415 52.47% 7,542 47.03% 16 0.10% 65 0.41% 873 5.44% 16,038
Giles 3,518 47.04% 3,918 52.39% 10 0.13% 32 0.43% -400 -5.35% 7,478
Grainger 2,734 65.50% 1,423 34.09% 5 0.12% 12 0.29% 1,311 31.41% 4,174
Greene 11,947 69.73% 5,077 29.63% 44 0.26% 64 0.37% 6,870 40.10% 17,132
Grundy 1,429 37.05% 2,415 62.61% 13 0.34% 0 0.00% -986 -25.56% 3,857
Hamblen 10,418 66.93% 5,061 32.52% 27 0.17% 59 0.38% 5,357 34.41% 15,565
Hamilton 68,111 62.08% 40,990 37.36% 157 0.14% 451 0.41% 27,121 24.72% 109,709
Hancock 1,303 62.58% 737 35.40% 8 0.38% 34 1.63% 566 27.18% 2,082
Hardeman 3,547 49.69% 3,526 49.40% 13 0.18% 52 0.73% 21 0.29% 7,138
Hardin 4,252 59.98% 2,808 39.61% 5 0.07% 24 0.34% 1,444 20.37% 7,089
Hawkins 9,356 63.88% 5,212 35.59% 24 0.16% 54 0.37% 4,144 28.29% 14,646
Haywood 2,687 47.64% 2,923 51.83% 3 0.05% 27 0.48% -236 -4.19% 5,640
Henderson 5,418 69.29% 2,296 29.36% 21 0.27% 84 1.07% 3,122 39.93% 7,819
Henry 4,784 47.96% 5,138 51.51% 3 0.03% 50 0.50% -354 -3.55% 9,975
Hickman 2,246 45.67% 2,643 53.74% 14 0.28% 15 0.31% -397 -8.07% 4,918
Houston 882 37.26% 1,467 61.98% 4 0.17% 14 0.59% -585 -24.72% 2,367
Humphreys 2,132 41.09% 3,037 58.54% 1 0.02% 18 0.35% -905 -17.45% 5,188
Jackson 1,168 37.15% 1,962 62.40% 5 0.16% 9 0.29% -794 -25.25% 3,144
Jefferson 6,832 67.85% 3,168 31.46% 13 0.13% 56 0.56% 3,664 36.39% 10,069
Johnson 3,715 73.14% 1,329 26.17% 3 0.06% 32 0.63% 2,386 46.97% 5,079
Knox 73,092 63.27% 41,829 36.21% 190 0.16% 410 0.35% 31,263 27.06% 115,521
Lake 806 46.06% 935 53.43% 1 0.06% 8 0.46% -129 -7.37% 1,750
Lauderdale 3,308 49.83% 3,296 49.65% 4 0.06% 31 0.47% 12 0.18% 6,639
Lawrence 6,273 56.09% 4,903 43.84% 7 0.06% 0 0.00% 1,370 12.25% 11,183
Lewis 1,324 47.95% 1,419 51.39% 8 0.29% 10 0.36% -95 -3.44% 2,761
Lincoln 4,288 53.49% 3,672 45.80% 21 0.26% 36 0.45% 616 7.69% 8,017
Loudon 7,122 66.69% 3,480 32.59% 14 0.13% 63 0.59% 3,642 34.10% 10,679
Macon 2,962 65.37% 1,538 33.94% 5 0.11% 26 0.57% 1,424 31.43% 4,531
Madison 16,952 60.46% 11,001 39.23% 3 0.01% 83 0.30% 5,951 21.23% 28,039
Marion 4,407 51.14% 4,175 48.45% 6 0.07% 30 0.35% 232 2.69% 8,618
Marshall 2,975 51.37% 2,795 48.26% 2 0.03% 19 0.33% 180 3.11% 5,791
Maury 8,397 56.78% 6,280 42.47% 11 0.07% 100 0.68% 2,117 14.31% 14,788
McMinn 8,462 64.70% 4,568 34.93% 19 0.15% 29 0.22% 3,894 29.77% 13,078
McNairy 4,625 56.46% 3,510 42.85% 10 0.12% 46 0.56% 1,115 13.61% 8,191
Meigs 1,507 58.68% 1,048 40.81% 2 0.08% 11 0.43% 459 17.87% 2,568
Monroe 6,355 61.15% 4,000 38.49% 9 0.09% 29 0.28% 2,355 22.66% 10,393
Montgomery 12,599 57.65% 9,145 41.84% 24 0.11% 88 0.40% 3,454 15.81% 21,856
Moore 786 51.37% 731 47.78% 3 0.20% 10 0.65% 55 3.59% 1,530
Morgan 2,576 56.67% 1,941 42.70% 2 0.04% 27 0.59% 635 13.97% 4,546
Obion 6,037 55.60% 4,785 44.07% 8 0.07% 28 0.26% 1,252 11.53% 10,858
Overton 1,873 42.60% 2,511 57.11% 1 0.02% 12 0.27% -638 -14.51% 4,397
Perry 854 41.14% 1,208 58.19% 3 0.14% 11 0.53% -354 -17.05% 2,076
Pickett 1,118 63.67% 634 36.10% 4 0.23% 0 0.00% 484 27.57% 1,756
Polk 2,297 52.31% 2,073 47.21% 3 0.07% 18 0.41% 224 5.10% 4,391
Putnam 9,547 58.62% 6,606 40.56% 24 0.15% 108 0.66% 2,941 18.06% 16,285
Rhea 5,144 66.15% 2,595 33.37% 6 0.08% 31 0.40% 2,549 32.78% 7,776
Roane 10,881 62.19% 6,535 37.35% 6 0.03% 75 0.43% 4,346 24.84% 17,497
Robertson 5,714 48.95% 5,884 50.41% 12 0.10% 62 0.53% -170 -1.46% 11,672
Rutherford 20,397 62.18% 12,245 37.33% 34 0.10% 125 0.38% 8,152 24.85% 32,801
Scott 2,562 61.10% 1,611 38.42% 3 0.07% 17 0.41% 951 22.68% 4,193
Sequatchie 1,659 57.83% 1,196 41.69% 2 0.07% 12 0.42% 463 16.14% 2,869
Sevier 11,920 76.26% 3,643 23.31% 13 0.08% 55 0.35% 8,277 52.95% 15,631
Shelby 157,457 50.96% 149,759 48.47% 375 0.12% 1,397 0.45% 7,698 2.49% 308,988
Smith 2,138 45.63% 2,522 53.82% 2 0.04% 24 0.51% -384 -8.19% 4,686
Stewart 1,302 39.50% 1,979 60.04% 2 0.06% 13 0.39% -677 -20.54% 3,296
Sullivan 32,996 64.73% 17,396 34.13% 33 0.06% 552 1.08% 15,600 30.60% 50,977
Sumner 19,523 62.20% 11,702 37.28% 41 0.13% 123 0.39% 7,821 24.92% 31,389
Tipton 6,052 61.02% 3,824 38.56% 6 0.06% 36 0.36% 2,228 22.46% 9,918
Trousdale 969 44.59% 1,193 54.90% 1 0.05% 10 0.46% -224 -10.31% 2,173
Unicoi 3,664 66.79% 1,794 32.70% 5 0.09% 23 0.42% 1,870 34.09% 5,486
Union 2,110 59.20% 1,431 40.15% 3 0.08% 20 0.56% 679 19.05% 3,564
Van Buren 780 49.37% 796 50.38% 4 0.25% 0 0.00% -16 -1.01% 1,580
Warren 4,529 49.13% 4,646 50.40% 5 0.05% 38 0.41% -117 -1.27% 9,218
Washington 19,615 65.63% 10,087 33.75% 63 0.21% 122 0.41% 9,528 31.88% 29,887
Wayne 3,405 68.77% 1,516 30.62% 3 0.06% 27 0.55% 1,889 38.15% 4,951
Weakley 5,701 57.07% 4,239 42.44% 15 0.15% 34 0.34% 1,462 14.63% 9,989
White 2,646 50.41% 2,562 48.81% 10 0.19% 31 0.59% 84 1.60% 5,249
Williamson 20,847 72.33% 7,864 27.28% 52 0.18% 60 0.21% 12,983 45.05% 28,823
Wilson 13,317 61.11% 8,360 38.36% 24 0.11% 92 0.42% 4,957 22.75% 21,793
Totals 947,233 57.89% 679,794 41.55% 2,041 0.12% 1,807 0.11% 267,439 16.34% 1,636,250

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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[18][19]

Analysis

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Most counties in Tennessee turned out for Bush, including the highly populated Shelby County and Davidson County, by narrow margins. Those two counties have never voted Republican since this election.[1]

Tennessee was the only state that Bush improved on Ronald Reagan’s 1984 vote share within, although only by 0.05%.[20] He became only the second Republican after Richard Nixon in 1972 to carry Lincoln County and Hardeman County.[21]

See also

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Notes

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References

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  1. ^ a b Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  2. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 202.
  3. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 202-203.
  4. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 10.
  5. ^ a b Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 205.
  6. ^ Black & Black 1992, p. 266.
  7. ^ Black & Black 1992, p. 263.
  8. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 204-206.
  9. ^ Black & Black 1992, p. 288.
  10. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 201.
  11. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 204.
  12. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 206.
  13. ^ Black & Black 1992, p. 295.
  14. ^ Black & Black 1992, p. 335.
  15. ^ Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 214-216.
  16. ^ a b Moreland, Steed & Baker 1991, p. 208.
  17. ^ "TN US President, November 08, 1988". Our Campaigns.
  18. ^ "1984 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee". Dave Leip's election atlas.
  19. ^ "1988 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee". Dave Leip's election atlas.
  20. ^ Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, p. 111 ISBN 0786422173
  21. ^ Menendez; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, pp. 298-303

Works cited

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