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2012 United States presidential election in Idaho

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters chose four electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations considered this a state Romney would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Romney and Ryan carried Idaho with 64.09% of the popular vote to Obama's and Biden's 32.40%, thus winning the state's four electoral votes.[1] Romney's victory in Idaho made it his fourth strongest state in the 2012 election after Utah, Wyoming and Oklahoma.[2] He improved on McCain's performance in 2008, expanding his margin from 25.3% to 31.69% and flipping Teton County which had previously voted for Obama.

2012 United States presidential election in Idaho
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 420,911 212,787
Percentage 64.09% 32.40%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Caucuses

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Democratic caucuses

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President Obama ran unopposed in the caucuses. The District cast all 31 of its delegate votes at the 2012 Democratic National Convention for Obama.[3]

2012 Idaho Democratic presidential primary[4]
Candidate State convention delegates Percentage Delegates
Barack Obama (incumbent) 1,400 100% 27
Unpledged delegates: 4
Total: 1,400 100% 31

Republican caucuses

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2012 Idaho Republican presidential caucuses
 
← 2008 March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06) 2016 →
       
Candidate Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Pennsylvania Texas
Delegate count 32 0 0
Popular vote 27,514 8,115 8,086
Percentage 61.6% 18.2% 18.1%
 
Idaho results by county
  Mitt Romney
  Rick Santorum
  Ron Paul

The Republican caucuses took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.[5][6] An advisory primary with no binding effect on delegates, scheduled to be held on Tuesday May 15, 2012, was cancelled by the Idaho Republican Party.[7] Five candidates were on the ballot. In order of filing they are Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Buddy Roemer. Although Roemer had withdrawn from the Republican race before the Idaho caucus, he still appeared on the ballot.[8]

Idaho has 32 delegates to the Republican national convention, of which 3 are RNC and 29 are AL.[clarification needed] The 3 RNC delegates pledged to go with the results of the Boise Straw Poll.[citation needed] The delegates will be determined by the caucuses results, based on a two-step approach. First, the delegates are primarily awarded winner-take-all by county after a series of votes in which candidates are successively removed from the ballot. Then, if a candidate receives half or more of the county delegates, he will receive all the 32 delegates; if not, the delegates will be split proportionately according to the number of county delegates.[9] Mitt Romney won 61% of the vote, thanks to a large majority of support (80-90% in most counties) in majority Mormon southeastern Idaho, rendering it a winner-take-all contest. Santorum and Paul split the Panhandle, winning five counties each, but came away empty in the delegate count.

Straw polls

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Despite a complete lack of formal polling in the state,[9] there were a total of five straw polls conducted in Idaho, three of which were online. Ron Paul won three of these,[10][11][12] while Mitt Romney won two.[13]

January 2–4 online poll
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This was the first ever Idaho straw poll.[14] It was conducted entirely online by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won with over 70% of the vote.[10]

Finish Candidate Percentage
1 Ron Paul 73.53%
2 Rick Santorum 8.09%
3 Newt Gingrich 7.35%
4 Mitt Romney 5.15%
5 Barack Obama 3.68%
6 Gary Johnson 1.47%
7 Rick Perry 0.74%
8 Jon Huntsman 0.00%
9 Michele Bachmann 0.00%
Total 100%
January 6 Boise poll
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This poll used paper ballots and was conducted in Boise. Ron Paul won this poll. Rick Perry's campaign, although still active in the race at this time, did not participate.[11]

Finish Candidate Percentage Votes
1 Ron Paul 43% 173
2 Mitt Romney 34% 135
3 Newt Gingrich 12% 47
4 Rick Santorum 10% 40
5 Jon Huntsman 1% 4
Total 100% 399
February 2–4 online poll
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This online straw poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Mitt Romney won the poll by a small margin.[13]

Finish Candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 45.39%
2 Ron Paul 42.70%
3 Rick Santorum 4.49%
4 Newt Gingrich 3.82%
5 Barack Obama 3.15%
6 Other 0.45%
Total 100%
March 1–3 online poll
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This poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won by a double-digit margin.[12]

Finish Candidate Percentage Votes
1 Ron Paul 51.37% 525
2 Mitt Romney 35.03% 358
3 Gary Johnson 3.91% 40
4 Rick Santorum 3.23% 33
5 Virgil Goode 2.84% 29
6 Buddy Roemer 1.96% 20
7 Newt Gingrich 0.98% 10
8 Barack Obama 0.49% 5
9 Other 0.2% 2
Total 100% 1022

Results

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Results:[15][16]

Finish Candidate Percentage Votes Estimated National Delegates
1 Mitt Romney 61.6% 27,514 32
2 Rick Santorum 18.2% 8,115 0
3 Ron Paul 18.1% 8,086 0
4 Newt Gingrich 2.1% 940 0
5 Buddy Roemer 0.0% 17 0
Total 100% 32
County totals
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County Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Total Winner
Ada 307 1766 4233 1866 8172 Romney
Adams 0 85 132 0 217 Romney
Bannock 24 254 1614 146 2038 Romney
Bear Lake 2 15 308 19 344 Romney
Benewah 24 90 26 145 265 Santorum
Bingham 27 215 2172 150 2564 Romney
Blaine 47 79 230 23 379 Romney
Boise 0 128 163 0 291 Romney
Bonner 0 555 0 487 1042 Paul
Bonneville 65 481 3044 235 3825 Romney
Boundary 0 193 64 101 358 Paul
Butte 10 25 153 23 211 Romney
Camas 0 40 38 0 78 Paul
Canyon 0 617 2056 1296 3969 Romney
Caribou 7 22 336 26 391 Romney
Cassia 28 143 1279 144 1594 Romney
Clark 2 8 88 17 115 Romney
Clearwater 0 85 0 151 236 Santorum
Custer 19 48 98 24 189 Romney
Elmore 0 158 281 0 439 Romney
Franklin 4 105 856 29 994 Romney
Fremont 12 76 726 38 852 Romney
Gem 0 150 379 143 672 Romney
Gooding 47 84 299 86 516 Romney
Idaho 0 284 0 191 475 Paul
Jefferson 11 212 1642 114 1979 Romney
Jerome 28 74 331 101 534 Romney
Kootenai 0 496 0 674 1170 Santorum
Latah 78 509 197 188 972 Paul
Lemhi 44 60 217 64 385 Romney
Lewis 0 0 25 44 69 Santorum
Lincoln 14 11 147 49 221 Romney
Madison 7 260 2510 50 2827 Romney
Minidoka 22 80 653 92 847 Romney
Nez Perce 0 127 124 0 251 Paul
Oneida 3 39 241 18 301 Romney
Owyhee 0 0 177 263 440 Santorum
Payette 0 0 428 302 730 Romney
Power 9 13 287 38 347 Romney
Shoshone 0 0 63 74 137 Santorum
Teton 13 44 295 26 378 Romney
Twin Falls 83 332 1228 409 2052 Romney
Valley 0 123 152 0 275 Romney
Washington 0 0 222 269 491 Santorum

Notes

  • That these totals reflect the final caucus ballots in each county; where only two candidates have votes totaled, this was likely from other candidates being eliminated in previous rounds of voting. Where all candidates have at least one vote, only one ballot was necessary, since the winning candidate had a majority of votes in that county.
  • Vote totals for Buddy Roemer, who had formally withdrawn from the Republican race before the caucus, are not provided.

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[17] Safe R November 6, 2012
CNN[18] Safe R November 6, 2012
New York Times[19] Safe R November 6, 2012
Washington Post[20] Safe R November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[21] Solid R November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Solid R November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[23] Solid R November 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

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Results

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2012 United States presidential election in Idaho[24]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 420,911 64.09% 4
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 212,787 32.40% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 9,453 1.44% 0
Write-Ins Write-Ins 4,429 0.67% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 4,402 0.67% 0
Justice Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 2,499 0.38% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 2,222 0.34% 0
Peace & Freedom Roseanne Barr Cindy Sheehan 39 0.01% 0
Totals 656,742 100.00% 4

By county

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County Mitt Romney
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Ada 97,554 53.53% 77,137 42.33% 7,555 4.14% 20,417 11.20% 182,246
Adams 1,413 68.56% 577 28.00% 71 3.44% 836 40.56% 2,061
Bannock 21,010 59.14% 13,214 37.20% 1,299 3.66% 7,796 21.94% 35,523
Bear Lake 2,489 88.20% 302 10.70% 31 1.10% 2,187 77.50% 2,822
Benewah 2,596 66.82% 1,164 29.96% 125 3.22% 1,432 36.86% 3,885
Bingham 13,440 76.03% 3,822 21.62% 416 2.35% 9,618 54.41% 17,678
Blaine 3,939 38.64% 5,992 58.78% 263 2.58% -2,053 -20.14% 10,194
Boise 2,284 66.28% 1,053 30.56% 109 3.16% 1,231 35.72% 3,446
Bonner 11,367 60.45% 6,500 34.57% 936 4.98% 4,867 25.88% 18,803
Bonneville 32,276 74.68% 9,903 22.91% 1,038 2.41% 22,373 51.77% 43,217
Boundary 3,138 69.06% 1,225 26.96% 181 3.98% 1,913 42.10% 4,544
Butte 1,001 77.84% 258 20.06% 27 2.10% 743 57.78% 1,286
Camas 402 69.55% 159 27.51% 17 2.94% 243 42.04% 578
Canyon 44,369 66.47% 19,866 29.76% 2,512 3.77% 24,503 36.71% 66,747
Caribou 2,608 85.45% 386 12.65% 58 1.90% 2,222 72.80% 3,052
Cassia 7,154 84.84% 1,098 13.02% 180 2.14% 6,056 71.82% 8,432
Clark 235 71.65% 66 20.12% 27 8.23% 169 51.53% 328
Clearwater 2,541 68.75% 1,032 27.92% 123 3.33% 1,509 40.83% 3,696
Custer 1,744 74.06% 530 22.51% 81 3.43% 1,214 51.55% 2,355
Elmore 5,227 65.31% 2,513 31.40% 263 3.29% 2,714 33.91% 8,003
Franklin 5,195 92.77% 325 5.80% 80 1.43% 4,870 86.97% 5,600
Fremont 4,907 84.57% 810 13.96% 85 1.47% 4,097 70.61% 5,802
Gem 5,311 70.90% 1,957 26.12% 223 2.98% 3,354 44.78% 7,491
Gooding 3,696 72.22% 1,287 25.15% 135 2.63% 2,409 47.07% 5,118
Idaho 5,921 75.52% 1,708 21.79% 211 2.69% 4,213 53.73% 7,840
Jefferson 9,895 86.94% 1,303 11.45% 183 1.61% 8,592 75.49% 11,381
Jerome 4,804 71.52% 1,699 25.29% 214 3.19% 3,105 46.23% 6,717
Kootenai 39,381 65.09% 18,851 31.16% 2,273 3.75% 20,530 33.93% 60,505
Latah 7,589 44.32% 8,306 48.51% 1,229 7.17% -717 -4.19% 17,124
Lemhi 3,029 73.70% 960 23.36% 121 2.94% 2,069 50.34% 4,110
Lewis 1,173 72.63% 396 24.52% 46 2.85% 777 48.11% 1,615
Lincoln 1,141 68.61% 469 28.20% 53 3.19% 672 40.41% 1,663
Madison 13,445 93.29% 832 5.77% 135 0.94% 12,613 87.52% 14,412
Minidoka 5,442 78.04% 1,390 19.93% 141 2.03% 4,052 58.11% 6,973
Nez Perce 9,967 58.65% 6,451 37.96% 575 3.39% 3,516 20.69% 16,993
Oneida 1,838 87.98% 217 10.39% 34 1.63% 1,621 77.59% 2,089
Owyhee 2,794 75.03% 833 22.37% 97 2.60% 1,961 52.66% 3,724
Payette 6,004 70.68% 2,271 26.73% 220 2.59% 3,733 43.95% 8,495
Power 1,870 64.39% 982 33.82% 52 1.79% 888 30.57% 2,904
Shoshone 2,699 52.43% 2,277 44.23% 172 3.34% 422 8.20% 5,148
Teton 2,458 54.34% 1,926 42.58% 139 3.08% 532 11.76% 4,523
Twin Falls 19,773 69.70% 7,541 26.58% 1,055 3.72% 12,232 43.12% 28,369
Valley 2,664 54.16% 2,095 42.59% 160 3.25% 569 11.57% 4,919
Washington 3,128 72.22% 1,104 25.49% 99 2.29% 2,024 46.73% 4,331
Totals 420,911 64.09% 212,787 32.40% 23,044 3.51% 208,124 31.69% 656,742
 
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Romney won both congressional districts.[25]

District Obama Romney Representative
1st 32.19% 64.91% Raúl Labrador
2nd 33.07% 64.14% Mike Simpson

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Idaho". Retrieved January 4, 2013.
  2. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  3. ^ "Idaho Democratic Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
  4. ^ "District of Columbia Democratic Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
  5. ^ "Idaho Republican Delegation 2012".
  6. ^ "Election and voting information" (PDF).
  7. ^ "Idaho Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  8. ^ "Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates". May 27, 2018.
  9. ^ a b Nate Silver (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  10. ^ a b "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on March 6, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  11. ^ a b http://www.kivitv.com/news/local/136861888.html [permanent dead link‍]
  12. ^ a b "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on March 6, 2012. Retrieved March 4, 2012.
  13. ^ a b "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on March 6, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  14. ^ Bodnar, Marissa. "Idaho GOP Gears Up For 2012 Straw Poll, Caucus". Local News 8. NPG of Idaho, Inc. Archived from the original on September 18, 2016. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
  15. ^ "Caucus Results | Idaho GOPIdaho GOP". Archived from the original on July 20, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
  16. ^ "Idaho County Map". CNN.
  17. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  18. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  19. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  20. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  21. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  22. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  23. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  24. ^ "2012 Presidential General Election Results - Idaho". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  25. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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