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Economy of Libya

(Redirected from Libyan oil industry)

The economy of Libya depends primarily on revenues from the petroleum sector, which represents over 95% of export earnings and 60% of GDP.[13] These oil revenues and a small population have given Libya one of the highest nominal per capita GDP in Africa.[14][13]

Economy of Libya
Tripoli, financial capital of Libya
CurrencyLibyan dinar (LYD, ل.د)
calendar year
Trade organisations
OPEC, COMESA, CEN-SAD, AMU
Country group
Statistics
PopulationIncrease 6,888,388 (2023)[3]
GDP
  • Increase $45.75 billion (nominal, 2023 est.)[4]
  • Increase $182.7 billion (PPP, 2024 est.)[5]
GDP rank
GDP growth
  • 26.7% (2017)
  • 7.9% (2018e)
  • 5.5% (2019f)
  • −58.7% (2020f)
  • +170% (2021)
GDP per capita
  • Increase $6,716 (nominal, 2023 est.)[5]
  • Increase $24,000 (PPP, 2023 est.)[5]
GDP per capita rank
GDP by sector
  • agriculture 1.3%
  • industry 63.8%
  • services 34.9%
  • (2017 est.)[6]
3.4% (2023)[5]
Population below poverty line
  • NA%
  • about one-third of Libyans live at or below the national poverty line[7]
N/A
Increase 0.718 high (2022)[8]
Labour force
  • Increase 2,553,671 (2019)[9]
  • 38.7% employment rate (2012)[10]
Labour force by occupation
  • agriculture: 17%
  • industry: 23%
  • services: 59%
  • (2004)[7]
Unemployment30% (2004 est.)[7]
Main industries
petroleum, steel, iron, food processing, textiles, cement
External
ExportsIncrease $18.38 billion (2017 est.)[7]
Export goods
crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, chemicals
Main export partners
Imports$11.36 billion (2017 est.)[7]
Import goods
machinery, transport equipment, semi-finished goods, food, consumer products
Main import partners
FDI stock
  • Increase $20.21 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[7]
  • Decrease Abroad: $20.97 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[7]
Increase $2.574 billion (2017 est.)[7]
Positive decrease $3.02 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[7]
Public finances
Positive decrease 4.7% of GDP (2017 est.)[7]
−25.1% (of GDP) (2017 est.)[7]
Revenues13.47 billion (2022 est.)
Expenses30.61 billion (2022 est.)
Economic aidrecipient ODA $9 million (2010), $642 million (2011), $87 million (2012)[12]
Increase $74.71 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[7]
All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

After 2000, Libya recorded favorable growth rates with an estimated 10.6% growth of GDP in 2010. This development was interrupted by the Libyan Civil War, which resulted in contraction of the economy by 62.1% in 2011. After the war, the economy rebounded by 104.5% in 2012. It crashed again following the Second Libyan Civil War.[15] As of 2017, Libya's per capita PPP GDP stands at 60% of its pre-war level.[15]

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Libyan GDP per capita was about $40 in the early 1920s and it rose to $1,018 by 1967. In 1947 alone, per capita GDP rose by 42 percent.

The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1980–2021 (with IMF staff estimates in 2022–2027). Inflation below 5% is in green.[16] The annual unemployment rate is extracted from the World Bank, although the International Monetary Fund find them unreliable.

Year GDP

(in Bil. US$PPP)

GDP per capita

(in US$ PPP)

GDP

(in Bil. US$nominal)

GDP per capita

(in US$ nominal)

GDP growth

(real)

Inflation rate

(in Percent)

Unemployment

(in Percent)

Government debt

(in % of GDP)

1980 97.8 32,745.5 40.2 13,449.6  0.6%  14.3% n/a n/a
1981  85.6  27,398.5  34.7  11,107.6  -20.0%  13.2% n/a n/a
1982  92.3  28,202.7  34.6  10,575.6  1.5%  13.8% n/a n/a
1983  91.4  26,800.2  33.0  9,671.5  -4.7%  10.5% n/a n/a
1984  86.8  24,406.1  30.9  8,681.2  -8.3%  12.4% n/a n/a
1985  90.1  25,471.4  30.4  8,586.4  0.6%  9.1% n/a n/a
1986  81.5  22,172.1  24.8  6,734.0  -11.4%  3.4% n/a n/a
1987  71.2  18,585.1  23.0  6,002.1  -14.7%  4.4% n/a n/a
1988  79.3  18,346.5  25.9  5,981.6  7.6%  3.1% n/a n/a
1989  88.4  19,550.0  27.4  6,070.1  7.2%  4.5% n/a n/a
1990  95.1  22,327.7  31.6  7,424.2  3.7%  0.7% n/a 4.7%
1991  116.3  26,685.3  35.0  8,026.3  18.3%  11.7% 19.8%  9.6%
1992  113.6  25,468.7  35.5  7,950.5  -4.5%  9.5%  20.0%  1.2%
1993  109.9  24,106.1  31.9  6,998.3  -5.5%  7.5%  20.0%  -4.6%
1994  115.9  24,921.7  29.7  6,391.1  3.2%  10.7%  19.9%  -1.6%
1995  100.1  21,064.9  33.7  7,102.9  -15.4%  8.3%  20.0%  4.8%
1996  103.7  21,422.2  36.8  7,608.8  1.8%  4.0%  19.8%  12.2%
1997  102.7  20,872.4  37.7  7,663.0  -2.6%  3.6%  19.8%  -1.3%
1998  103.1  20,587.9  30.9  6,171.8  -0.7%  3.7%  19.8%  -1.5%
1999  104.4  20,511.0  37.1  7,294.5  -0.2%  2.6%  19.7%  6.4%
2000  111.1  21,444.4  39.5  7,625.0  4.0%  -2.9%  19.7%  13.6%
2001  116.6  22,161.2  35.2  6,693.1  2.6%  -8.8%  19.7%  0.4%
2002  114.0  21,343.2  21.1  3,956.5  -3.7%  -9.9%  19.6%  7.0%
2003  135.0  24,905.2  27.0  4,986.3  16.1%  -2.1%  19.5%  6.2%
2004  146.7  26,626.3  34.1  6,180.4  5.8%  1.3%  19.5%  11.3%
2005  167.4  29,942.7  48.9  8,739.2  10.6%  2.7%  19.4%  30.4%
2006  173.0  30,408.6  60.1  10,561.4  0.3%  1.5%  19.4%  29.1%
2007  188.8  32,659.5  68.2  11,801.3  6.2%  6.2%  19.4%  28.4%
2008  192.1  32,666.6  86.8  14,762.6  -0.2%  10.4%  19.4%  27.7%
2009  184.8  31,007.5  60.8  10,202.8  -4.4%  2.4%  19.4%  -5.5%
2010  196.4  32,515.4  75.4  12,478.0  5.0%  2.5%  19.3%  11.5%
2011  99.6  16,810.9  48.2  8,132.3  -50.3%  15.9%  19.4%  -11.5%
2012  172.5  27,458.8  92.5  14,728.1  86.8%  6.1%  19.0%  24.6%
2013  144.5  23,054.5  75.4  12,025.6  -18.0%  2.6%  19.5%  -16.3%
2014  126.9  20,273.6  57.4  9,166.6  -23.0%  2.4%  19.5%  -30.5%
2015  137.2  21,709.9  48.7  7,706.7  -0.8%  10.0%  19.5%  -28.5%
2016  137.4  21,520.7  49.9  7,817.6  -1.5%  25.9%  19.5%  -29.3%
2017  154.4  23,949.3  67.2  10,414.1  32.5%  25.9%  19.4%  -11.1%
2018  170.7  26,207.0  76.7  11,773.8  7.9%  14.0%  19.5%  9.4%
2019  154.3  23,454.9  69.2  10,526.3  -11.2%  -2.9%  19.7%  11.9%
2020  110.1  16,575.1  46.9  7,056.7  -29.5%  1.5%  20.1%  -22.3%
2021  147.1  21,929.0  39.0  5,813.3  28.3%  2.8%  19.6%  11.3%
2022  128.4  18,944.7  40.8  6,025.7  -18.5%  5.5% n/a  15.8%
2023  156.7  22,899.5  43.8  6,391.8  17.9%  4.0% n/a  22.1%
2024  172.8  24,997.2  45.6  6,599.0  8.0%  3.0% n/a  18.8%
2025  188.8  27,034.7  47.7  6,836.3  7.2%  3.0% n/a  16.5%
2026  200.5  28,434.6  49.1  6,964.6  4.2%  3.0% n/a  13.5%
2027  212.8  29,874.1  50.5  7,096.0  4.1%  3.1% n/a  9.7%

Notes:
1. For purchasing power parity comparisons, the US Dollar is exchanged at 0.77 Libyan Dinars only.

Mean wages were $9.51 per man-hour in 2009 (amounts to a compensation of $1598 for 21 working days of 8 hours).

Oil sector

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See also: Energy in Libya
 
Development of oil production in Libya

Libya is an OPEC member and holds the largest proven oil reserves in Africa (followed by Nigeria and Algeria), 41.5 Gbbl (6.60×109 m3) as of January 2007, up from 39.1 Gbbl (6.22×109 m3) in 2006. About 80% of Libya's proven oil reserves are located in the Sirte Basin, which is responsible for 90% of the country's oil output.[17] The state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) dominates Libya's oil industry, along with smaller subsidiaries, which combined account for around 50% of the country's oil output. Among NOC's subsidiaries, the largest oil producer is the Waha Oil Company (WOC), followed by the Agoco, Zueitina Oil Company (ZOC), and Sirte Oil Company (SOC). Oil resources, which account for approximately 95% of export earnings, 75% of government receipts, and over 50% of GDP. Oil revenues constitute the principal foreign exchange source. Reflecting the heritage of the command economy, three-quarters of employment is in the public sector, and private investment remains small at around 2% of GDP.[18]

 
A map of world oil reserves according to U.S. EIA, 2017

Falling world oil prices in the early 1980s and economic sanctions caused a serious decline in economic activity, eventually leading to a slow private sector rehabilitation. At 2.6% per year on average, real GDP growth was modest and volatile during the 1990s. Libya's GDP grew in 2001 due to high oil prices, the end of a long cyclical drought, and increased foreign direct investment following the suspension of UN sanctions in 1999. Real GDP growth has been boosted by high oil revenues, reaching 4.6% in 2004 and 3.5% in 2005. Despite efforts to diversify the economy and encourage private sector participation, extensive controls of prices, credit, trade, and foreign exchange constrain growth.

Although UN sanctions were suspended in 1999, foreign investment in the Libyan gas and oil sectors were severely curtailed due to the U.S. Iran and Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), which capped the amount foreign companies can invest in Libya yearly at $20 million (lowered from $40 million in 2001). As of May 2006, the U.S. has removed Libya from its list of states that sponsor terrorism and has normalised ties and removed sanctions. This clears the road for U.S. oil companies to exploit Libyan oil and is expected to have a positive impact on the Libyan economy. [1]

The NOC hopes to raise oil production from 1.80 million bpd in 2006 to 2 million bpd by 2008. FDI into the oil sector is likely, which is attractive due to its low cost of oil recovery, high oil quality, and proximity to European markets.[19] Most Libyan oil is sold on a term basis, including to the country's Oilinvest marketing network in Europe; to companies like Agip, OMV, Repsol YPF, Tupras, CEPSA, and Total; and small volumes to Asian and South African companies.[20]

Statistic Amount
Proven Oil Reserves (2007E) 41.5 Gbbl (6.60×10^9 m3)
Oil Production (2006E) 1.8 million barrels per day (290×10^3 m3/d) (95% crude)
Oil Consumption (2006E) 284,000 barrels per day (45,200 m3/d)
Net Oil Exports (2006E) 1.5 million barrels per day (240×10^3 m3/d)
Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (2006E) 378 kbbl/d (60.1×10^3 m3/d)
Proven Natural Gas Reserves (2007E) 52.7×10^12 cu ft (1.49×1012 m3)
Natural Gas Production (2006E) 3,999×10^9 cu ft (1.132×1011 m3)
Natural Gas consumption (2005E) 206×10^9 cu ft (5.8×109 m3)

Notes:
1. Energy Information Administration (2007)

Field Development and Exploration

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Further information: Oil reserves in Libya
 
Oil is Libya's major resource.

In November 2005, Repsol YPF discovered a significant oil deposit of light, sweet crude in the Murzuq Basin. Industry experts believe the discovery to be one of the biggest made in Libya for several years. Repsol YPF is joined by a consortium of partners including OMV, Total and Norsk Hydro. Also located in Murzuq Basin is Eni's Elephant field. In October 1997, a consortium led by British company Lasmo, along with Eni and a group of five South Korean companies, announced that it had discovered large recoverable crude reserves about 800 kilometres (500 mi) south of Tripoli.[21] Lasmo estimated field production would cost around $1 per barrel. Elephant began production in February 2004.

WOC's Waha fields currently produce around 350,000 bbl/d (56,000 m3/d). In 2005, ConocoPhillips and co-venturers reached an agreement with NOC to return to its operations in Libya and extend the Waha concession 25 years. ConocoPhillips operates the Waha fields with a 16.33% share in the project. NOC has the largest share of the Waha concession, and additional partners include Marathon and Amerada Hess.[22]

Refining and Downstream

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Libya has five domestic refineries:

Refinery Capacity Operator
Zawia Refinery 120,000 ZOC
Ras Lanuf Refinery 220,000 Ras Lanuf
El-Brega Refinery 10,000 SOC
Tobruk Refinery 20,000 Agoco
Sarir Refinery 10,000 Agoco

Notes:
1. Amounts in barrels per day.

Diversification

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Pivot irrigation in Kufra, southeast Cyrenaica. Oil wealth has enabled Libya to pursue extravagant projects such as agriculture and the Great Manmade River in the Sahara Desert.
 
Modern buildings in Tripoli before the wars, 2009

In 2007, mining and hydrocarbon industries accounted for well over 95 percent of the Libyan economy.[citation needed] Diversification of the economy into manufacturing industries remain a long-term issue.

Although agriculture is the second-largest sector in the economy, Libya depends on imports in most foods. Climatic conditions and poor soils severely limit farm output, and domestic food production meets only about 25% of demand. Domestic conditions limit output, while higher incomes and a growing population have caused food consumption to rise. Because of low rainfall levels in Libya, agricultural projects such as the Kufra oasis rely on underground water sources. Libya's primary agricultural water source remains the Great Manmade River (GMMR), but significant resources are being invested in desalinization research to meet growing demand. Libyan agricultural projects and policies are overseen by a General Inspector; there is no Ministry of Agriculture, per se.[23]

Libya produced in 2018:

In addition to smaller productions of other agricultural products.[24]

Tourism

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Main article: Tourism in Libya

The tourism industry was heavily hit by the Libyan Civil War. Before the war tourism was developing, with 149,000 tourists visiting Libya in 2004, rising to 180,000 in 2007, although this still only contributed less than 1% of the country's GDP. There were 1,000,000 day visitors in the same year.[25][26] The country is best known for its ancient Greek and Roman ruins and Sahara desert landscapes.

Labor market

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Libya posted a 3.3% rate of population growth during 1960–2003. In 2003, 86% of the population was urban, compared to 45% in 1970. Although no reliable estimates are available, unemployment is reportedly acute: over 50% of the population under the age of 20. Moreover, despite the bias of labor market regulations favoring Libyan workers, the mismatch of the educational system with market demand has produced a large pool of expatriate workers, with typically better-suited education and higher productivity. However, because of shortages for manual labor, Libya has also attracted important numbers of less skilled immigrants. Expatriate workers represent an estimated fifth of the labor force.[27]

Although significant, the proportion of expatriate workers is still below oil producing countries in the Persian Gulf. Foreign workers mainly come from the Maghreb, Egypt, Turkey, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Poland, Chad, Sudan, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.[28][29] They tend to earn relatively high wages, taking either skilled or hard manual jobs. Census data for 2000 show the share of expatriates earning over LD 300 (US$230) per month was 20%, compared to 12% for Libyan nationals. A campaign encouraging conversion of qualified civil servants to entrepreneurs, in the face of public sector over employment and declining productivity, does not seem to be producing the desired results thus far.[18]

External trade and finance

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Libyan export destinations in 2006.

The Government is in the process of preparing a financial sector reform program. Recent legislation setting corporate governance standards for financial institutions makes progress towards better management and greater operational independence of public banks. However, Libyan public banks still lack management structures supported by skills in critical areas like credit, investment, risk management, and information and control systems.

The new banking law reinforces the independence of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) and offers a legal framework for regulating banking activities, even if some provisions call for improvement. Despite progress brought by the new banking Law that specifies and limits its duties and responsibilities, the CBL remains the owner of the public banks, with the associated potential conflict of interest between ownership and regulation.

Financial sector reform has also progressed with partial interest rate liberalization. Interest rates have been liberalized on deposits, while a lending rate ceiling has been set above the discount rate. The Libyan Stock Exchange, established in 2007, is the first exchange of its kind in the country.

In 2011, Libya Oil Holdings had its €38m stake in Irish exploration firm Circle Oil frozen on foot of a European Union order that's been put in place to put pressure on the Gaddafi regime.[30]

Two trans-African automobile routes pass through Libya:

Statistics

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Household income or consumption by percentage share:
lowest 11%: NA%
highest 10%: NA%

Industrial production growth rate: 2.7% (2009)

Electricity - production: 24 billion kWh (2007 est)

Electricity - production by source:
fossil fuel: 100%
hydro: 0%
nuclear: 0%
other: 0% (1998)

Electricity - consumption: 22.17 billion kWh (2007 est)

Electricity - exports: 104 million kWh (2007)

Electricity - imports: 77 million kWh (2007)

Agriculture - products: wheat, barley, olives, dates, citrus, vegetables, peanuts, soybeans, cattle, corn

International rankings

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Organisation Survey Ranking
The Economist The World in 2005 - Worldwide quality-of-life index, 2005 70 out of 111
Energy Information Administration Greatest Oil Reserves by Country, 2006 9 out of 20
Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index (2007) 155 out of 169
Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2007 131 out of 180
United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index 2005 58 out of 177

Notes

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  1. ^ "World Economic Outlook Database, April 2019". IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. Archived from the original on 10 October 2020. Retrieved 29 September 2019.
  2. ^ "World Bank Country and Lending Groups". datahelpdesk.worldbank.org. World Bank. Archived from the original on 28 October 2019. Retrieved 29 September 2019.
  3. ^ "Population, total - Libya". worldometers.info. WorldoMeters. Archived from the original on 6 May 2019. Retrieved 15 November 2023.
  4. ^ "Economy in Libya compared to the EU". Worlddata.info. Archived from the original on 8 March 2024. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
  5. ^ a b c d "World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019". IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. Archived from the original on 29 July 2020. Retrieved 15 November 2019.
  6. ^ "The World Factbook- Libya". Central Intelligence Agency. Archived from the original on 9 January 2021. Retrieved 5 May 2018.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "The World Factbook". CIA.gov. Central Intelligence Agency. Archived from the original on 9 January 2021. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
  8. ^ "Human Development Report 2021/2022" (PDF). United Nations Development Programme. 8 September 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 October 2022. Retrieved 8 September 2022.
  9. ^ "Labor force, total - Libya". data.worldbank.org. World Bank. Archived from the original on 9 July 2021. Retrieved 27 November 2019.
  10. ^ "Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) (national estimate) - Libya". data.worldbank.org. World Bank. Archived from the original on 27 November 2019. Retrieved 27 November 2019.
  11. ^ a b "Foreign trade partners of Libya". The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Archived from the original on 5 April 2023. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  12. ^ http://www.oecd.org/dac/stats/documentupload/LBY.JPG Archived 25 January 2018 at the Wayback Machine OECD Statistics
  13. ^ a b "Libya". Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Archived from the original on 19 May 2014. Retrieved 5 May 2018.
  14. ^ USD 12,062 as of 2010 (IMF estimate); rank 48 worldwide, followed by Equatorial Guinea with USD 11,081 on rank 51.
  15. ^ a b "GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $) | Data". data.worldbank.org. Archived from the original on 3 September 2018. Retrieved 3 September 2018.
  16. ^ "Report for Selected Countries and Subjects". Archived from the original on 22 October 2022. Retrieved 22 October 2022.
  17. ^ Oil and Gas Journal, 2007
  18. ^ a b World Bank 2006
  19. ^ International Crude Oil Market Handbook
  20. ^ EIA 2007
  21. ^ "OMV's 1st Oil Find in Libya since Revolution". libya-businessnews.com/. Libya Business News. 22 October 2013. Archived from the original on 8 December 2013. Retrieved 4 September 2015.
  22. ^ EIA 2007 p.3
  23. ^ Doing Business in LIBYA: A Country Commercial Guide for U.S. Companies, March, 2006
  24. ^ "Libya production in 2018, by FAO". Archived from the original on 12 November 2016. Retrieved 1 November 2020.
  25. ^ Annual Review of Developments in Globalization and Regional Integration in the Arab Countries, 2007. Annual Review of Developments in Globalization and Regional Integration in the Arab Countries. UN. 2013. p. 21. doi:10.18356/b9466ffc-en. ISBN 9789210557740. Archived from the original on 3 June 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018.
  26. ^ "Tripoli, Libya – A Prosperous Prospect. - Tuesday, 23rd September 2008 at 4Hoteliers". 4hoteliers.com. Archived from the original on 16 February 2012. Retrieved 11 March 2012.
  27. ^ Although, in the absence of a labor force survey, estimates are surrounded by considerable uncertainty
  28. ^ http://www.seenews.com/news/latestnews/bosnia_senergoinvestsees2007profitunchanging_signscontractsinlibya_-151444/ Archived 27 February 2008 at the Wayback Machine Bosnia's Energoinvest Sees 2007 Profit Flat, Signs Contracts in Libya, Algeria
  29. ^ http://www.arabianbusiness.com/506991-bosnian-firm-clinches-52mn-libya-deal?ln=en Archived 5 January 2008 at the Wayback Machine Bosnian firm clinches $52mn Libya deal
  30. ^ "Libya Stake in Circle Oil Frozen". Archived from the original on 13 March 2011. Retrieved 13 March 2011.

References

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See also

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