Wikipedia

Blue shift (politics)

(Redirected from Red mirage)
"Red mirage" redirects here. For the novel, see The Red Mirage.

In American politics, a blue shift, also called a red mirage,[1][2] is an observed phenomenon under which counts of in-person votes are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Republican Party (whose party color is red), while provisional votes or absentee ballots, which are often counted later, are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Democratic Party (whose color is blue).[3][4] This means that election day results can initially indicate a Republican is ahead, but adding provisional ballots and absentee ballots into the count can eventually show a Democratic victory.

Confusion about the blue shift phenomenon has led some Republicans to call the legitimacy of elections into question.[5][6] Blue shift occurs because young voters, low-income voters, and voters who relocate often are likely both to vote provisionally and to lean Democratic.[7] This phenomenon remains poorly understood by the general public and election experts, and can cause confusion given that Americans are accustomed to learning projected results on election day and often times assume the projected results announced then are an accurate representation of final results.[8]

Background

edit

The phenomenon was first identified by Edward Foley of Ohio State University in 2013.[7] He found that Democratic candidates are significantly more likely to gain votes during the "canvass" period, which is the votes counted after election night.[9] This asymmetry has not always existed; in the 20th century, as recently as the 1996 United States presidential election, Republicans and Democrats were both able to cut their opponents' leads during the canvass period. Foley conjectured that the 2002 enactment of the Help America Vote Act accelerated the pronounced asymmetry of the blue shift phenomenon, because it required states to allow provisional ballots to be cast.[9]

He later found that the variation in the size of the blue shift is positively associated with the number of provisional ballots and the Democratic partisanship of the state in question.[10] The growth in the persistent blue-shifted overtime vote began with the 2004 United States presidential election.[11] However, Foley has stated that political scientists have not fully "pinned down causality" of this phenomenon.[8] Foley did not find that mail-in or absentee votes favored either party.[8]

As results are tabulated on election night, smaller and more rural jurisdictions have fewer ballots to tabulate, so can complete reporting faster. Thus, early results often lean conservative as larger counties take their time to process ballots.[12] One notable instance of this occurring was the 2010 California Attorney General election. Republican Steve Cooley was up by several points with Los Angeles and Alameda counties, two of the state's largest, scheduled to report most of their ballots around midnight. In order to meet evening newscasts, Cooley declared victory at 11 pm, but continuing results from the urban counties led to the race being declared too close to call by most media outlets, and Cooley ultimately losing to Democrat Kamala Harris by 0.7 percentage points.[13][14]

States vary in their rules for processing mail-in ballots. While some require they be received by the elections office by election day, others allow them to arrive later and still be counted, provided they are postmarked by election day. Some states allow ballots to be processed as they are delivered, while some force elections offices to wait until election day to verify signatures and open envelopes. These factors can influence the difference between the vote that is announced on election night and that counted later.[15]

2018 elections

edit

One example is the 2018 California's 39th congressional district election. This was a closely contested race for an open seat in the United States House of Representatives that included portions of Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties in Southern California. Republican Young Kim was running against Democrat Gil Cisneros. On election night, November 6, Kim held a lead of 3 percentage points and over 15,000 votes over Cisneros. However, as the votes were counted over the ensuing weeks, Cisneros overtook Kim in the vote count, and won the election.[3] A blue shift occurred in other California races as well – Republican House incumbents Jeff Denham, Mimi Walters and David Valadao were all leading on election night, but ended up losing as mail-in ballots skewed heavily in favor of their Democratic challengers.[16]

Another notable example of blue shift was the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. McSally led the vote count on election night, but Sinema ultimately won the election due to mail-in ballots.[17] Democrats initially thought that they had lost that election, when they had actually won.[18] In addition to these examples, blue shift has been documented in California,[3] Pennsylvania,[7] Oregon, and Ohio,[9] among other states.

2020 elections

edit

Foley expressed concern that this phenomenon, along with difficulties in conducting the election during a pandemic, could lead to "a perfect storm" in the 2020 United States presidential election.[8] This concern was particularly pronounced due to the fact that incumbent president Donald Trump did not state before the election whether he would accept the election results.[19] Given Trump's repeated attacks on mail balloting, nonpartisan experts warned that he could attempt to block the blue shift by building up a lead among ballots cast on Election Day, and then disputing the legitimacy of mail-in and absentee ballots.[20]

The United States Postal Service had cost-cutting policies put in place by its new director Louis DeJoy, who was a top donor and fundraiser to Donald Trump, and these cost-cutting policies further slowed delivery of postal ballots. Trump had openly stated that he opposed USPS funding, specifically to prevent mail-in ballots, due to his fears that it could hurt his chances of re-election.[21] These changes have become known as the 2020 United States Postal Service crisis. Some accused Trump of "intentionally kneecapping the postal service in an attempt to sabotage the election."[22]

These concerns were echoed by former president Barack Obama, who described Trump's threats as "unheard of".[23] For this reason, election experts advocated that postal ballots be mailed weeks in advance of Election Day.[24] As an alternative solution, Jamelle Bouie of The New York Times advocated that Democrats vote in person if they were able.[25]

Predictions

edit

U.S. data and analytics company Hawkfish predicted that on election night in 2020, U.S. Republican party nominee and presidential incumbent Donald Trump would receive more in-person votes than Joe Biden, his Democratic party nominee and principal challenger, but when absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots were counted, the election would swing against Trump in a classic "red mirage" or "blue shift" scenario.[1][26] Hawkfish's survey asked 17,263 American voters whether they planned to use absentee ballots or go to the polls.[26] Asked about the scenario, Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh told reporters, "The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future."[27]

Vote counts

edit

Within hours after the earliest poll closings on the evening of November 3, 2020, Trump claimed victory in several states that had Trump leading, but in which his margins were shrinking as mail-in ballots were counted.[28] At 2:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday, speaking to supporters, he said, "We want all voting to stop."[28] At the time he had a lead in Michigan of 300,000 votes and in Pennsylvania of 690,000 votes.[28] Wisconsin was also seeing a red mirage, but the Associated Press called the state for Biden at 4:40 a.m. after a ballot dump of 69,000 absentee ballots turned Trump's 31,000-vote lead into a narrow lead for Biden that would be impossible for the outstanding vote total to surpass.[29][30]

By 8:30 a.m., with counting of absentee ballots underway, Biden had pulled ahead in Michigan and cut Trump's lead in Pennsylvania to 610,000 votes; as Biden continued to increase his lead in Michigan, the Associated Press called the state for him at 5:56 p.m. EST.[28][31] At 11:25 a.m. EST on November 7, four days after Election Night, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, the Associated Press, CNN and Fox News all called the election for Biden based on his large lead in Pennsylvania and the fact that the outstanding vote total, mostly from heavily Democratic areas, would be nearly impossible for Trump to overcome.[32][33]

2022 elections

edit

After the January 6 Capitol attack, Democrats repeatedly sounded the alarm that this phenomenon in the last two election cycles could lead to "a perfect storm" in the 2022 United States elections.[34] The blue shift will decide the election.[8] This concern was particularly pronounced because 291 GOP candidates refused to accept election results, and nonpartisan experts warned that they will plan to build up a lead among ballots cast on Election Day, claim victory, and then say, "stop counting ballots because all those absentee ballots are illegitimate", thus disallowing the likely blue shift.[35]

In the end, Democrats had an unexpected[36] and historic[37][38][39] strength in state-level and senatorial elections. 2022 is the first midterm since 1934 in which the president's party did not lose any state legislative chambers or incumbent senators and the Democrats did so under a DNC president after winning in Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.[40][41][42] It was also the first midterm since 1986 in which either party achieved a net gain of governorships while holding the presidency,[43][38][44] and the first time ever in a disadvantageous position.[36] It was later revealed that young voters helped save the Democrats and without them they would lose both chambers of Congress.[45][46]

In other countries

edit

There are differing reports in other countries as to whether mail-in or early ballots have a notably different political makeup than election day in person votes. In Germany, mail-in voters tend to be more urban than in person voters, tend to be more certain about their voting decisions, and favor bigger parties.[47] A "shift" does not usually feature in news coverage as both in-person and mail-in votes are counted beginning at 18:00 when polling booths close. Mail-in votes that arrive later than 18:00 on election day are discarded[48] – even if they only arrived late due to circumstances outside of the control of voters.[49]

However, given that exit polls are based only on in-person voters, the first prognosis of the election result, which is released immediately after polls close, often differs from the final result among other reasons due to the effect of mail-in ballots. The 2020 Bavarian local elections had their runoff election held as all mail-in (due to the COVID-19 pandemic) and some observers discounted that it had any partisan effect.[50]

Germany has seen an increase of mail-in voting at federal elections since their introduction in 1957 from less than one in twenty in 1957 to more than one in four in 2017.[51] In the May round of the 2016 Austrian presidential election, exit polls correctly pointed to a narrow lead for Norbert Hofer among those who voted at a polling station.[52] The postal votes, which made up about 12% of the total vote,[53] were slightly but definitively in favour of his rival Alexander Van der Bellen, and ultimately gave Van der Bellen victory.

See also

edit

References

edit
  1. ^ a b Cohen, Marshall (September 1, 2020). "Deciphering the 'red mirage,' the 'blue shift,' and the uncertainty surrounding election results this November". CNN. Archived from the original on September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  2. ^ Swan, Jonathan; Basu, Zachary (January 16, 2021). "Off the Rails: Trump's Premeditated Election Lie Lit the Fire". Axios.com. Retrieved November 9, 2022. As Trump prepared for Election Day, he was focused on the so-called red mirage. This was the idea that early vote counts would look better for Republicans than the final tallies because Democrats feared COVID-19 more and would disproportionately cast absentee votes that would take longer to count.
  3. ^ a b c Li, Yimeng; Hyun, Michelle; Alvarez, R. Michael (March 27, 2020). "Why Do Election Results Change After Election Day? The "Blue Shift" in California Elections". American Government and Politics. doi:10.33774/apsa-2020-s43xx. S2CID 242728072. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  4. ^ Li, Yimeng; Hyun, Michelle; Alvarez, R. Michael (2021). "Why Do Election Results Change after Election Day? The "Blue Shift" in California Elections". Political Research Quarterly. 75 (3): 860–874. doi:10.1177/10659129211033340. ISSN 1065-9129. S2CID 237670529.
  5. ^ Hyun, Michelle (March 30, 2020). "The Blue Shift in California Elections". Election updates. Caltech. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  6. ^ Canon, David T.; Sherman, Owen (September 2021). "Debunking the "Big Lie": Election Administration in the 2020 Presidential Election". Presidential Studies Quarterly. 51 (3): 546–581. doi:10.1111/psq.12721. ISSN 0360-4918. S2CID 236603442 – via Wiley Online Library.
  7. ^ a b c Lai, Jonathan (January 27, 2020). "How does a Republican lead on election night and still lose Pennsylvania? It's called the 'blue shift.'". Philadelphia Inquirer. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved July 31, 2020.
  8. ^ a b c d e Graham, David A. (August 10, 2020). "The 'Blue Shift' Will Decide the Election". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  9. ^ a b c Foley, Edward B. (November 12, 2013). "A Big Blue Shift: Measuring an Asymmetrically Increasing Margin of Litigation". Journal of Law and Politics. 27. Rochester, NY. SSRN 2353352. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  10. ^ Foley, Edward B.; Stewart III, Charles (August 28, 2015). "Explaining the Blue Shift in Election Canvassing". MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series. SSRN 2653456. Archived from the original on August 29, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  11. ^ Foley, Edward B.; Stewart III, Charles (March 1, 2020). "Explaining the Blue Shift in Election Canvassing". MIT Political Science Department Research Paper Series. SSRN 3547734. Archived from the original on December 12, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  12. ^ Mason, Linda (January 2001). "CBS news coverage of election night 2000 – Investigation, Analysis, Recommendations" (PDF). CBS News. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 6, 2020. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
  13. ^ Brooks, Jon (November 3, 2010). "Video: Steve Cooley Prematurely Declares Victory Last Night". KQED. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved October 16, 2020.
  14. ^ Stoltze, Frank (December 1, 2010). "District Attorney Steve Cooley's finished with statewide politics, but may run for re-election". Southern California Public Radio. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved October 16, 2020.
  15. ^ Blake, Aaron (November 4, 2022). "How Republicans have prevented mail ballots from being counted earlier". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  16. ^ Renda, Matthew (November 28, 2018). "Final House Seat Flips in Perfect Run for California Democrats". courthousenews.com. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
  17. ^ Arkin, James (November 12, 2018). "Sinema wins Arizona Senate race". Politico. Archived from the original on June 20, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  18. ^ J.D. (November 15, 2018). "What does Kyrsten Sinema's historic win mean for Arizona?". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  19. ^ Bryant, Christa Case (July 31, 2020). "The election is in 94 days. Will the results be seen as legitimate?". The Christian Science Monitor. ISSN 0882-7729. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  20. ^ McCartney, Robert (August 17, 2020). "Here's one way Trump could try to steal the election, voting experts say". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 17, 2020.
  21. ^ Kaufman, Ellie; Cohen, Marshall; Hoffman, Jason; Robertson, Nicky (August 13, 2020). "Trump says he opposes funding USPS because of mail-in voting". CNN. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
  22. ^ Estes, Adam Clark (August 7, 2020). "What's wrong with the mail". Vox. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  23. ^ Merica, Dan (August 14, 2020). "Obama: Trump is trying to 'actively kneecap' and 'starve' the postal service". CNN. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  24. ^ Berman, Russell (August 14, 2020). "What Really Scares Voting Experts About the Postal Service". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  25. ^ Bouie, Jamelle (August 11, 2020). "Opinion | How to Foil Trump's Election Night Strategy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on December 7, 2020. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  26. ^ a b Talev, Margaret (September 1, 2020). "Exclusive: Bloomberg group warns Trump will appear to win big on election night". Axios. Archived from the original on September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  27. ^ Hains, Tim (September 1, 2020). "Democratic Data Group Warns: Election Night Could Look Like A Trump Landslide (Until Mail-in Votes Are Counted)". RealClearPolitics. Archived from the original on September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  28. ^ a b c d Bump, Philip (November 4, 2020). "Analysis | The blue shift to Biden is underway. Will it be enough?". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 5, 2020.
  29. ^ Slodysko, Brian (November 4, 2020). "EXPLAINER: Why AP called Wisconsin for Biden". Associated Press. Archived from the original on December 9, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  30. ^ Rumore, Kori (November 7, 2020). "How Joe Biden got to 270 electoral votes". Chicago Tribune. Archived from the original on November 28, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  31. ^ Slodysko, Brian (November 4, 2020). "EXPLAINER: Why AP called Michigan for Biden". Associated Press. Archived from the original on December 29, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  32. ^ Wagner, Meg; et al. (November 8, 2020). "Joe Biden elected president". CNN. Archived from the original on November 7, 2020. Retrieved November 7, 2020.
  33. ^ Singman, Brooke; Steinhauser, Paul (November 7, 2020). "Biden wins presidency, Trump denied second term in White House, Fox News projects". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 7, 2020. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
  34. ^ Blanco, Adrian; Wolfe, Daniel; Gardner, Amy. "Tracking which 2020 election deniers are winning, losing in the midterms". Washington Post. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  35. ^ Gardner, Amy (October 19, 2022). "A majority of GOP nominees deny or question the 2020 election results". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  36. ^ a b Thompson, Derek (November 9, 2022). "Democrats Might Have Pulled Off the Biggest Midterm Shock in Decades". The Atlantic. Retrieved December 7, 2022.
  37. ^ Blake, Aaron (November 10, 2022). "How bad the 2022 election was for the GOP, historically speaking". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  38. ^ a b Hennessy-Fiske, Molly; Kane, Paul (November 12, 2022). "Democrats surged to flip state legislatures, defying past GOP gains". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved December 1, 2022.
  39. ^ Enten, Harry (November 13, 2022). "How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party defied midterm history". CNN. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  40. ^ "Democrats retain control of Senate after crucial victory in Nevada". The Guardian. November 13, 2022. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  41. ^ "Outstanding Senate races and where control of the upper chamber stands". ABC News. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  42. ^ Benen, Steve (December 7, 2022). "In historical terms, Biden's first midterms were a clear success". MSNBC.com. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  43. ^ Blake, Aaron (November 10, 2022). "How bad the 2022 election was for the GOP, historically speaking". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  44. ^ Enten, Harry (November 13, 2022). "How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party defied midterm history". CNN. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  45. ^ Enten, Harry (November 12, 2022). "Analysis: Democrats would have gotten crushed this election without young voters | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  46. ^ "Midterm exit polls show that young voters drove Democratic resistance to the 'red wave'". Brookings. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  47. ^ Erhardt, Christian (August 26, 2020). "Mysterium Briefwähler: Tipps für Kommunalpolitiker" [The Mystery of Mail-In Voters: Tips for Local Politicians]. KOMMUNAL (in German). Archived from the original on January 11, 2021. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
  48. ^ "Deutscher Bundestag - Briefwahl". Archived from the original on January 11, 2021. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
  49. ^ "Wahlpanne in MV: Briefwahlstimmen im Post-Verteilzentrum gestrandet" [Voting Failure in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Mailed Ballots Stranded in Postal Distribution Center]. Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). September 27, 2021. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  50. ^ Bachmeyer, Uli (March 30, 2020). "Das sind die Lehren aus der Kommunalwahl in Bayern" [Lessons from the Local Elections in Bavaria] (in German). Archived from the original on January 15, 2021. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
  51. ^ "Wahlbeteiligung und Briefwahl: Zahlen und Fakten Bundestagswahl 2017" [Electoral Participation and Voting by Mail: Numbers and Facts Bundestag Election 2017]. Federal Agency for Civic Education (in German). November 21, 2018. Archived from the original on January 11, 2021. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
  52. ^ Foster, Peter; Huggler, Justin (May 21, 2016). "Austria holds its breath as exit polls show far-Right candidate Norbert Hofer leads by the narrowest of margins". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on January 11, 2021. Retrieved June 10, 2016.
  53. ^ "Austria presidential vote: Run-off rivals face dead heat". May 22, 2016. Archived from the original on January 12, 2021. Retrieved June 10, 2016.
edit
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Blue_shift_(politics)&oldid=1258155374"