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2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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The 2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 6, 2012, to elect one of West Virginia's two members of the U.S. Senate for a six-year term. In a rematch of the 2010 special election, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Manchin won re-election to a first full term against the Republican nominee, John Raese. Notably, Manchin outperformed Barack Obama in the concurrent presidential election by 25.06 percentage points in vote share, and by 50.86 percentage points on margin.

2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia
← 2010 (special) November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
Turnout46.3% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Joe Manchin John Raese
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 399,908 240,787
Percentage 60.57% 36.47%
Manchin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Raese:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Background

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Robert Byrd held this seat in the U.S. Senate from 1959 until his death on June 28, 2010, after serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 1953, making him the longest-serving person in Congress. Byrd led his party in the Senate from 1977 to 1989, as Majority Leader or Minority Leader. Afterward, as the most senior Democrat in the Senate, he served as president pro tempore of the Senate whenever his party was in the majority, including at the time of his death.

After Byrd's death, West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant initially announced that a special election would not be held until the regular election for the six-year term in 2012. However, that special election was rescheduled to 2010 for it to coincide with the mid-term elections and to avoid having an interim appointee serving more than two years in the seat.

Governor Joe Manchin made a temporary appointment of Carte Goodwin to the vacant seat. Goodwin was later replaced by Manchin who won the 2010 special election.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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  • Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican State Delegate and Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and 2010[2]
  • Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator[3]

Results

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Democratic Primary Results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 163,891 79.94
Democratic Sheirl Fletcher 41,118 20.06
Total votes 205,009 100

Republican primary

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Republican Primary Results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Raese 88,510 100.0
Total votes 88,510 100

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Raese filed a rematch against Manchin, arguing that he now had more material to criticize Manchin for. One example is how Manchin lost his longtime endorsement from the organization West Virginians for Life because of his vote against defunding Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider.[8] Another example is how he is undecided about whether or not to support Obama's re-election campaign.[9] Senior Obama campaign advisor David Axelrod commented in response, "His concern is about his own political well-being."[10] In addition, he voted against U.S. Congressman Paul Ryan's Republican budget.[11]

Raese wrote an op-ed in the Charleston Gazette-Mail, saying about Manchin, "Yes, he'll talk like a conservative and act like he's fiscally responsible to appeal to more moderate voters, but under that outward appearance of a lovable rube is the heart of a tax-and-spend liberal."[9]

Raese continued to make controversial statements. In April 2012, he equated smoking bans with Adolf Hitler's yellow badge. He said "in Monongalia County now, I have to put a huge sticker on my buildings to say this is a smoke-free environment. This is brought to you by the government of Monongalia County. Okay? Remember Hitler used to put Star of David on everybody’s lapel, remember that? Same thing." That same day, he referred to President Franklin D. Roosevelt as "Fidel Roosevelt."[12] Raese didn't apologize for his statements on Hitler saying "I am not going to be intimidated by a bunch of bullshit. I'm not apologizing to anybody or any organization. It's my perfect right to make a speech about meaningful subject matters in this country."[13] He also called rocker Ted Nugent a "patriot" for criticizing President Barack Obama.[14]

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Joe Manchin (D) $9,467,003 $7,678,708 $1,788,297 $0
John Raese (R) $1,607,740 $1,610,493 $4,679 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[15]

Top contributors

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Joe Manchin Contribution John Raese Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $670,553 Entertainment industry $176,025
Mining industry $647,548 Leadership PACs $143,190
Electric Utilities $392,100 Retired $109,513
Leadership PACs $366,000 Lawyers/Law Firms $62,069
Health Professionals $287,498 Special Trade Contractors $59,450
Retired $275,750 Health Professionals $54,300
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $272,900 Financial Institutions $52,695
Petroleum Industry $256,150 Real Estate $45,875
Real Estate $228,350 Petroleum Industry $35,900
Lobbyists $200,689 Republican/Conservative $35,357
Source: OpenSecrets[16]

Top industries

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Joe Manchin Contribution John Raese Contribution
FirstEnergy Corporation $136,950 Greer Industries $124,754
Mylan Laboratories Inc. $127,500 Mountaineer Contractors Inc. $40,900
Mepco LLC $64,400 Senate Conservatives Fund $37,690
Dominion Resources $58,900 Frankovitch, Anetakis, Colantonio & Simon $25,650
Centene Corporation $55,900 Wv Radio $22,550
American Electric Power $55,750 West Virginia Radio Corporation $16,821
Jackson Kelly PLLC $50,825 Polino Contracting $15,500
Drummond Company $49,100 Cleveland Brothers $10,800
Patriot Coal Corporation $48,400 American Financial Group $10,200
Boich Companies $44,200 Senate Majority Fund $10,000
Source: OpenSecrets[17]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Likely D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Safe D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[20] Safe D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[21] Likely D November 5, 2012

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		John
Raese (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] January 20–23, 2011 1,105 ±2.9% 60% 31% — 9%
Public Policy Polling[23] April 21–24, 2011 850 ±3.4% 61% 29% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[24] September 1–4, 2011 708 ±3.7% 62% 23% — 14%
R.L. Repass[25] April 25–28, 2012 410 ±4.8% 74% 22% — 4%
R.L. Repass[26] August 22–25, 2012 401 ±4.9% 66% 27% — 7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Bill
Maloney (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[27] September 30 – October 2, 2011 932 ±3.2% 60% 29% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		David
McKinley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] January 9–10, 2011 1,058 ± 53% 41% — 3%
Public Policy Polling[23] April 21–24, 2011 850 ±3.4% 63% 25% — 12%
Public Policy Polling[24] September 1–4, 2011 708 ±3.7% 60% 24% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Shelley
Moore Capito (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] January 20–23, 2011 1,105 ±2.9% 50% 41% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[23] April 21–24, 2011 850 ±3.4% 48% 40% — 12%
Public Policy Polling[24] September 1–4, 2011 708 ±3.7% 52% 36% — 13%
Public Policy Polling[27] September 30 – October 2, 2011 932 ±3.2% 49% 38% — 13%

Results

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In spite of the Republicans winning every county in the presidential election, Manchin carried 52 of West Virginia's 55 counties.[28]

United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2012[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 399,908 60.57% +7.10%
Republican John Raese 240,787 36.47% −6.93%
Mountain Bob Henry Baber 19,517 2.96% +1.04%
Total votes 660,212 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Manchin won all 3 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.[30]

District Manchin Raese Representative
1st 58.31% 38.94% David McKinley
2nd 58.48% 38.2% Shelley Moore Capito
3rd 65.42% 31.82% Nick Rahall

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  2. ^ "Perennial candidate Sheirl Fletcher files for Senate run". June 10, 2013.
  3. ^ King, Joselyn (January 19, 2012). "Manchin Wants To Stay In Senate". The Intelligencer & Wheeling News Register. Archived from the original on March 7, 2012. Retrieved January 27, 2012.
  4. ^ "Statewide Results". Secretary of State of West Virginia. Retrieved May 27, 2012.
  5. ^ "Statewide Results". Secretary of State of West Virginia. Retrieved August 27, 2023.
  6. ^ "Mountain Party nominates Johnson, Baber at Sutton convention". The Charleston Gazette. July 24, 2012. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
  7. ^ Catanese, David (January 12, 2012). "Raese is back for a rematch". Politico. Retrieved January 27, 2012.
  8. ^ "Manchin, Raese face off for Senate again - WBOY.com: Clarksburg, Morgantown: News, Sports, Weather". Archived from the original on January 2, 2018. Retrieved May 10, 2012.
  9. ^ a b "John Raese: Gazette should endorse Manchin - Op-Ed Commentaries - The Charleston Gazette - West Virginia News and Sports". Archived from the original on May 12, 2012. Retrieved May 10, 2012.
  10. ^ Axelrod: Sen. Manchin Out for ‘Own Political Well-Being’ - ABC News
  11. ^ GOP House budget bill | U.S. Congress Votes Database - The Washington PostThe Washington Post
  12. ^ John Raese Equates Smoking Ban To Hitler Policy
  13. ^ John Raese: Hitler Controversy Over Comparing Smoking Regulations To Nazi Policy Is 'Bull****'
  14. ^ John Raese Calls Ted Nugent A Patriot After Obama Threat (VIDEO)
  15. ^ "Candidate Details". Retrieved May 10, 2012.[dead link‍]
  16. ^ "Top Industries 2012 Race: West Virginia Senate". OpenSecrets. March 25, 2013.
  17. ^ "Top Contributors 2012 Race: West Virginia Senate". OpenSecrets. March 25, 2013.
  18. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  19. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  20. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  21. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  22. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  23. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ R.L. Repass
  26. ^ R.L. Repass
  27. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  28. ^ "West Virginia". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 29, 2021.
  29. ^ "WV SOS - Elections - Election Results - Online Data Services". Archived from the original on January 21, 2019. Retrieved January 20, 2019.
  30. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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Official campaign websites

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