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2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky

Not to be confused with 2004 Kentucky Senate election.

The 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State Senator Daniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since 1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat.

2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky
← 1998 November 2, 2004 2010 →
 
Nominee Jim Bunning Daniel Mongiardo
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 873,507 850,855
Percentage 50.66% 49.34%
County results
Bunning:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Mongiardo:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Jim Bunning
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jim Bunning
Republican

Democratic primary

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Background

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Former Governor Paul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in the Democratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled on Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and State Senator from Hazard, Kentucky.

Candidates

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Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Daniel Mongiardo 142,162 64.92%
Democratic David L. Williams 76,807 35.08%
Total votes 218,969 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Bunning (incumbent) 96,545 84.00%
Republican Barry Metcalf 18,395 16.00%
Total votes 114,940 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife.[3][4]

Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf.

The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is on Central Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of President George W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory.

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Lean R November 1, 2004

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Bunning (R) 		Daniel
Mongiardo (D) 		Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA[6] October 28–30, 2004 631 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% 6%

Results

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2004 Kentucky U.S. Senator general election [7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jim Bunning (incumbent) 873,507 50.66% +0.91%
Democratic Daniel Mongiardo 850,855 49.34% +0.18%
Turnout 1,724,362
Republican hold Swing

By county

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County Bunning Votes Mongiardo Votes
Adair 69% 4,857 31% 2,151
Allen 70% 4,640 30% 2,030
Anderson 51% 4,676 49% 4,540
Ballard 43% 1,752 57% 2,331
Barren 58% 8,749 42% 6,459
Bath 37% 1,673 63% 2,910
Bell 44% 4,442 56% 5,646
Boone 71% 31,162 29% 12,543
Bourbon 46% 3,614 54% 4,250
Boyd 49% 10,181 51% 10,713
Boyle 52% 6,179 48% 5,806
Bracken 66% 2,249 34% 1,183
Breathitt 28% 1,607 72% 4,201
Breckinridge 57% 4,633 43% 3,550
Bullitt 57% 15,675 43% 11,913
Butler 70% 3,665 30% 1,601
Caldwell 50% 3,025 50% 3,034
Calloway 51% 7,456 49% 7,063
Campbell 64% 24,603 36% 14,079
Carlisle 48% 1,327 52% 1,412
Carroll 48% 1,788 52% 1,971
Carter 45% 4,794 55% 5,754
Casey 75% 4,483 25% 1,476
Christian 63% 12,331 37% 7,304
Clark 48% 7,047 52% 7,559
Clay 62% 4,336 38% 2,643
Clinton 77% 3,094 23% 937
Crittenden 55% 2,214 45% 1,813
Cumberland 73% 2,103 27% 782
Daviess 51% 20,148 49% 19,739
Edmonson 62% 3,165 38% 1,942
Elliott 28% 801 72% 2,025
Estill 55% 2,892 45% 2,414
Fayette 41% 50,209 59% 70,798
Fleming 52% 3,080 48% 2,815
Floyd 29% 5,015 71% 12,092
Franklin 34% 7,998 66% 15,324
Fulton 46% 1,237 54% 1,426
Gallatin 59% 1,736 41% 1,184
Garrard 60% 3,767 40% 2,556
Grant 65% 5,497 35% 3,007
Graves 48% 7,448 52% 8,036
Grayson 62% 5,894 38% 3,618
Green 68% 3,324 32% 1,556
Greenup 50% 7,804 50% 7,874
Hancock 48% 1,834 52% 2,010
Hardin 57% 19,916 43% 14,910
Harlan 31% 3,340 69% 7,265
Harrison 50% 3,738 50% 3,702
Hart 56% 3,518 44% 2,785
Henderson 47% 8,419 53% 9,490
Henry 52% 3,266 48% 3,024
Hickman 49% 1,093 51% 1,159
Hopkins 56% 10,161 44% 7,930
Jackson 78% 3,755 22% 1,070
Jefferson 40% 134,699 60% 198,541
Jessamine 56% 10,002 44% 7,730
Johnson 59% 5,242 41% 3,711
Kenton 65% 42,158 35% 22,759
Knott 19% 1,345 81% 5,811
Knox 59% 6,685 41% 4,591
LaRue 60% 3,429 40% 2,241
Laurel 67% 14,427 33% 7,014
Lawrence 54% 3,322 46% 2,790
Lee 59% 1,606 41% 1,126
Leslie 51% 2,438 49% 2,339
Letcher 32% 2,751 68% 5,884
Lewis 70% 3,562 30% 1,509
Lincoln 57% 4,870 43% 3,695
Livingston 45% 2,025 55% 2,520
Logan 59% 5,847 41% 4,099
Lyon 45% 1,680 55% 2,082
Madison 50% 14,743 50% 14,790
Magoffin 43% 2,100 57% 2,816
Marion 41% 2,881 59% 4,112
Marshall 48% 7,191 52% 7,937
Martin 65% 2,744 35% 1,497
Mason 59% 3,884 41% 2,748
McCracken 52% 14,934 48% 13,940
McCreary 71% 3,603 29% 1,501
McLean 49% 2,078 51% 2,179
Meade 53% 5,574 47% 5,000
Menifee 39% 946 61% 1,484
Mercer 53% 5,019 47% 4,534
Metcalfe 58% 2,260 42% 1,608
Monroe 77% 3,940 23% 1,156
Montgomery 43% 4,130 57% 5,558
Morgan 39% 1,800 61% 2,758
Muhlenberg 44% 5,604 56% 7,178
Nelson 48% 7,754 52% 8,300
Nicholas 43% 1,236 57% 1,638
Ohio 56% 5,371 44% 4,202
Oldham 59% 15,751 41% 10,731
Owen 58% 2,637 42% 1,909
Owsley 63% 1,142 37% 660
Pendleton 65% 3,824 35% 2,042
Perry 23% 2,620 77% 8,659
Pike 39% 9,672 61% 15,293
Powell 41% 1,961 59% 2,806
Pulaski 67% 16,053 33% 7,848
Robertson 54% 559 46% 468
Rockcastle 69% 3,956 31% 1,812
Rowan 40% 3,388 60% 5,032
Russell 69% 5,092 31% 2,242
Scott 49% 8,126 51% 8,364
Shelby 54% 8,544 46% 7,269
Simpson 56% 3,665 44% 2,938
Spencer 57% 3,799 43% 2,821
Taylor 63% 6,119 37% 3,643
Todd 63% 2,696 37% 1,550
Trigg 58% 3,354 42% 2,457
Trimble 50% 1,865 50% 1,852
Union 49% 2,791 51% 2,880
Warren 56% 21,258 44% 16,457
Washington 56% 2,761 44% 2,146
Wayne 60% 4,214 40% 2,783
Webster 48% 2,490 52% 2,738
Whitley 64% 8,082 36% 4,620
Wolfe 33% 911 67% 1,856
Woodford 44% 4,887 56% 6,196

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

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  1. ^ "Mongiardo Campaign Not Satisfied With Bunning Apology - wave3.com-Louisville News, Weather & Sports". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
  2. ^ a b "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 20, 2011. Retrieved April 17, 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ^ "Bunning apologizes for Saddam comparison". USA Today. AP. April 1, 2004. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
  4. ^ Paul Farhi (October 15, 2004). "Bunning's Wild Pitches Tighten Kentucky Senate Race". The Washington Post. pp. A06. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
  5. ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  6. ^ SurveyUSA
  7. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 20, 2010. Retrieved May 12, 2010.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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