Wikipedia

2022 United States Senate election in Vermont

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.

The 2022 United States Senate election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont. It was held concurrently with U.S. Senate elections in other states, along with elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections across the country. The incumbent senator, Democrat Patrick Leahy, announced on November 15, 2021, that he would not seek re-election to a ninth term,[1] leaving the seat open for the first time since 1974.

2022 United States Senate election in Vermont
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee Peter Welch Gerald Malloy
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 196,575 80,468
Percentage 68.47% 28.03%
Welch:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Malloy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Tie:      40–50%
No Vote/Data:      
U.S. senator before election

Patrick Leahy
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Peter Welch
Democratic

Primary elections were held on August 9, 2022, with Peter Welch, the incumbent U.S. Representative from the state's at-large congressional district, winning the Democratic primary, while U.S. Army veteran Gerald Malloy won the Republican primary. In heavily Democratic Vermont, the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election, and on election day, Welch defeated Malloy in a landslide. He won all but one county in the state, garnering 68.5% of the vote statewide to Malloy's 28.0%. The race was called for Welch shortly after polls closed.[2]

At 75 years old, Welch became the oldest person ever elected to a first term in the Senate, a record previously held by Frederick H. Gillett in 1924.[3] He also became only the second Democrat ever elected to the Senate from Vermont, after Leahy.[2]

Democratic primary

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Following Leahy's announcement that he would retire, speculation arose as to which Democrats could run to succeed him; Newsweek cited two of the leading possible contenders for the nomination as Peter Welch, who had served as U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district since 2006, and President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate Becca Balint.[4] Also considering a run was state representative Tanya Vyhovsky.[5] However, candidates were reluctant to enter the race due to speculation that Bernie Sanders, Vermont's popular junior senator, would endorse Welch for the open seat.[5] It was widely considered that an endorsement from Sanders would essentially lock up the race for Welch.[5] While both men were both considered to be associated with the left-wing of the Democratic Party, Welch was noted by The Intercept to be rather more moderate than Sanders was, especially when compared to Vyhovsky.[5]

Welch announced his campaign for the seat on November 22, 2021, pledging in a campaign video to support Medicare for All and the Green New Deal; he was immediately endorsed by Sanders.[6][7]

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Isaac Evans-Frantz, peace activist[10]
  • Niki Thran, physician[11]

Declined

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Endorsements

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Isaac Evans-Frantz
Organizations
Peter Welch
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Isaac
Evans-Frantz 		Niki
Thran 		Peter
Welch 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022 352 (LV) ± 5.2% 6% 1% 82% 0% 10%

Results

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Results by county
  Welch
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Peter Welch 86,603 87.01%
Democratic Isaac Evans-Frantz 7,230 7.26%
Democratic Niki Thran 5,104 5.13%
Write-in 599 0.60%
Total votes 99,536 100.0%

Republican primary

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Former U.S. Attorney Christina Nolan finished second in the primary.

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Myers Mermel
Governors
Organizations
Christina Nolan
U.S. Senators
Governors

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gerald
Malloy 		Myers
Mermel 		Christina
Nolan 		Undecided
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022 196 (LV) ± 7.0% 30% 3% 24% 43%

Results

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Results by county
  Malloy
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Nolan
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Gerald Malloy 12,169 42.39%
Republican Christina Nolan 10,825 37.70%
Republican Myers Mermel 5,227 18.21%
Write-in 489 1.70%
Total votes 28,710 100.0%

Progressive primary

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Candidates

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Withdrew after winning primary

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Declined

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Results

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Progressive primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Progressive Martha Abbott 473 86.63%
Write-in 73 13.37%
Total votes 546 100.0%

Minor-parties and independents

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[58] Solid D November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[59] Solid D January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Safe D November 3, 2021
Politico[61] Solid D August 12, 2022
RCP[62] Safe D November 1, 2022
Fox News[63] Solid D May 12, 2022
DDHQ[64] Solid D July 20, 2022
538[65] Solid D June 30, 2022
The Economist[66] Safe D September 7, 2022

Endorsements

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Peter Welch (D)
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions
Gerald Malloy (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Individuals
State legislators

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Peter
Welch (D) 		Gerald
Malloy (R) 		Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D) October 21–26, 2022 1,039 (LV) ± 3.0% 63% 32% – 4%
University of New Hampshire September 29 – October 3, 2022 765 (LV) ± 3.5% 62% 28% 2%[c] 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 3–7, 2022 1,072 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 43% 2% 5%
Hypothetical polling
Peter Welch vs. Christina Nolan
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Peter
Welch (D) 		Christina
Nolan (R) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022 583 (LV) ± 4.1% 62% 27% 1% 10%
Patrick Leahy vs. Phil Scott
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Patrick
Leahy (D) 		Phil
Scott (R) 		Other Undecided
VPR/Vermont PBS September 3–15, 2020 582 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 7% 15%

Debates

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2022 United States Senate general election in Vermont debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Peter Welch Gerard Malloy
1 Oct. 13, 2022 Vermont Public Radio Mikaela Lefrak Youtube P P

Results

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2022 United States Senate election in Vermont[74]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Peter Welch 196,575 68.47% +7.21%
Republican Gerald Malloy 80,468 28.03% −5.00%
Independent Dawn Marie Ellis 2,752 0.96% N/A
Green Mountain Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout 1,574 0.55% N/A
Independent Kerry Patrick Raheb 1,532 0.53% N/A
Independent Mark Coester 1,273 0.44% N/A
Independent Stephen Duke 1,209 0.42% N/A
Independent Cris Ericson 1,105 0.38% N/A
Write-in 612 0.21% +0.11%
Total votes 287,100 100% N/A
Democratic hold

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but ran with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
  2. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Ericson (I) with 1%; Ellis (I) with 1%

References

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  1. ^ a b "Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the longest-serving member of US Senate, says he won't run for reelection in 2022". news.yahoo.com. Associated Press. November 15, 2021. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  2. ^ a b Kang, Hanna; Casado, Laura (November 8, 2022). "The Senate has its 1st new member". The Week. London. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  3. ^ Fedor, Lauren (January 2, 2023). "First-time senators take their seats as Democrats maintain slim majority". Financial Times. London. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  4. ^ Hutzler, Alexandra (November 15, 2021). "Who Will Run for Patrick Leahy's Seat? Vermont's Longest-Serving Senator to Retire". Newsweek. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
  5. ^ a b c d Grim, Ryan (November 14, 2021). "Bernie Sanders Could Snuff Out a Potential Primary Contest to Replace Patrick Leahy". The Intercept. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
  6. ^ Forgey, Quint (November 22, 2021). "Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat". Politico. Axel Springer SE. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
  7. ^ Bowman, Bridget (November 22, 2021). "Welch launches Vermont Senate run with Sanders' backing". Roll Call. FiscalNote. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
  8. ^ Forgey, Quint (November 22, 2021). "Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat". Politico. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  9. ^ "Rep. Peter Welch announces run for U.S. Senate". WCAX-TV. Burlington, Vt. November 22, 2021. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  10. ^ "Isaac Evans-Frantz announces bid for US Senate in Vermont". April 11, 2022. Retrieved April 12, 2022.
  11. ^ "Physician Niki Thran to run for Vermont Senate seat". January 14, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  12. ^ a b c d e Heintz, Paul (November 18, 2020). "If Sanders Joined Biden's Cabinet, Who Would Succeed Him in the Senate?". Seven Days. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  13. ^ O'Connor, Kevin (November 3, 2020). "Senate leader Becca Balint's new signs hint at future statewide run". VTDigger. Archived from the original on December 5, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  14. ^ Sukiennik, Greg (November 23, 2020). "Balint, women leaders, Brock make history as Senate leadership shifts". Brattleboro Reformer. Archived from the original on November 29, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  15. ^ a b c Goldstein, Sasha (November 1, 2021). "Will Leahy Run? As He Ponders, Three Potential Congressional Candidates Gear up". Archived from the original on November 10, 2021. Retrieved November 10, 2021.
  16. ^ Duffort, Lola (December 13, 2021). "Becca Balint, leader of the Vermont Senate joins race for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
  17. ^ Davis, Eric (October 24, 2019). "Vermont elections may lack drama". Addison County Independent. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
  18. ^ Xander Landen & Kit Norton (October 29, 2019). "Democrats poll Zuckerman and Donovan for governor as Holcombe presses ahead". VTDigger. Archived from the original on October 29, 2020. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
  19. ^ "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Archived from the original on December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
  20. ^ Coleman, J. Miles (January 28, 2021). "2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved February 16, 2021.
  21. ^ Johnson, Mark (June 16, 2021). "Column | Lt. Gov. Molly Gray Says She's Too Focused on Her Current Role to Think About Running for Congress". sevendaysvt.com.
  22. ^ Cutler, Calvin (May 27, 2022). "Kesha Ram Hinsdale drops out of US House race, endorses Becca Balint". WCAX. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  23. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (January 13, 2022). "Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale launches campaign for US House". VTDigger. Vermont Journalism Trust. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  24. ^ a b Grim, Ryan (November 14, 2021). "Bernie Sanders could snuff out a potential primary challenge to replace Patrick Leahy". Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
  25. ^ Sukiennik, Greg (November 15, 2021). "Leaders, potential candidates hail U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy as he announces 2022 retirement". Bennington Banner. Archived from the original on November 18, 2021. Retrieved November 18, 2021.
  26. ^ a b Higdon, Bridget (May 4, 2022). "Rep. Tanya Vyhovsky announces candidacy for new Chittenden-Central State Senate District". The Essex Reporter.
  27. ^ Lindholm, Jane [@JaneLindholm] (November 15, 2021). "David Zuckerman coming out of the gate fast with his declaration, on @vermontedition, that he will NOT be running for the open Senate seat, and he advises patience for others who are considering jumping in. #vtpoli (Guess I won't make my announcement quite yet, then.)" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 16, 2021 – via Twitter.
  28. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (June 7, 2022). "Isaac Evans-Frantz doesn't want the US Senate race to be a 'coronation'". VT Digger. Retrieved August 5, 2022.
  29. ^ a b Knutson, Jacob (November 22, 2021). "Vermont Rep. Peter Welch to seek Leahy's Senate seat". Axios. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  30. ^ "Congressman Peter Welch to run for U.S. Senate after Sen. Leahy opts to not seek re-election". Vermont Public Radio. November 22, 2021. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 25, 2021.
  31. ^ a b "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World.
  32. ^ a b "Candidates". endcitizensunited.org. End Citizens United. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  33. ^ a b "Giffords Endorses Congressman Peter Welch for the US Senate". www.giffords.org. Giffords. April 29, 2022.
  34. ^ a b "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
  35. ^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Rep. Peter Welch for Election to the U.S. Senate". www.prochoiceamerica.org. February 15, 2022.
  36. ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
  37. ^ a b "2022 CWA Endorsed Candidates - Vermont". Communications Workers of America. March 24, 2022. Retrieved April 26, 2022.
  38. ^ a b c "2022 August Primary Federal and Statewide Office Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State.
  39. ^ "Republican candidates for U.S. Senate and House to hold forum in Milton May 14". Milton Independent. May 5, 2022. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
  40. ^ "FEC Form 2". Federal Election Committee. March 18, 2022. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
  41. ^ "Myers Mermel announces his candidacy for Us Senate in Vermont". Cision PR Newswire. May 27, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
  42. ^ Beals, Monique (February 22, 2022). "Former US attorney launches Senate bid in Vermont". thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved February 22, 2022.
  43. ^ Reed, Nathaniel [@ReedReports] (November 15, 2021). "JUST IN: Former Longtime Vermont Governor Jim Douglas (R-VT, 2003-2011) tells me (@Newsy) he will NOT run for Senate in 2022. Says he assumes Rep. @PeterWelch (D-VT) "would be the favorite, if he decides to run"" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 16, 2021 – via Twitter.
  44. ^ Scanlon, Kate (November 15, 2021). "GOP Vermont governor says he won't run for Senate seat Leahy's giving up". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on November 19, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2021.
  45. ^ a b "Senate candidate Mermel endorsed by Mike Huckabee". Vermont Daily Chronicle. June 10, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
  46. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah; Skillman, Kori (August 9, 2022). "Peter Welch to face Gerald Malloy in Vermont's US Senate race". VT Digger. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
  47. ^ "Mitch McConnell to headline Christina Nolan campaign fundraiser". Vermont Digger. May 2, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2022.
  48. ^ "Jim Douglas to chair Nolan for Senate campaign". Vermont Daily Chronicle. May 19, 2022. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  49. ^ Cooney, Melissa (February 22, 2022). "Nolan to run for US Senate". wcax.com. Retrieved February 28, 2022.
  50. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 30, 2022). "In Vermont election season with historic turnover, some statewide races will see little competition". Valley News. VTDigger. Archived from the original on May 31, 2022. Retrieved June 4, 2022.
  51. ^ a b c d e "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  52. ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1546208". Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
  53. ^ Jin, Danny (January 24, 2022). "Would-be Adams cannabis merchant, a vaccine critic, seeks Senate seat in Vermont". The Berkshire Eagle. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  54. ^ "Statement of Candidacy" (PDF). Federal Election Committee. November 24, 2021. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  55. ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1574431". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  56. ^ Duffort, Lola (March 3, 2022). "A former child star turned crypto capitalist is bankrolling his own Senate run in Vermont". VTDigger. Valley News. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
  57. ^ "FEC Form 2 Filing FEC-1547935". Federal Election Committee. November 11, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2022.
  58. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  59. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  60. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  61. ^ "Vermont Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  62. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  63. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  64. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  65. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  66. ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  67. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Endorsements - Welch for Vermont". welchforvermont. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  68. ^ "Editorial: Endorsements". November 3, 2022.
  69. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses U.S. Rep. Peter Welch of Vermont for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign. August 11, 2022. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  70. ^ "Congressional Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org.
  71. ^ "Republican US Senate candidate Gerald Malloy endorsed by Donald Trump". VT Digger. November 3, 2022.
  72. ^ a b "Military leaders endorse Gerald Malloy for U.S. Senate". VT Digger. June 29, 2022. Retrieved September 10, 2022.
  73. ^ a b c d "Republican state legislators unite behind Gerald Malloy for U.S. Senate". VT Digger. August 2, 2022. Retrieved September 10, 2022.
  74. ^ "Election Results". Vermont Secretary of State.
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Campaign sites
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