Wikipedia

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Missouri Senate election.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley was re-elected to a second term, defeating his Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1]

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Josh Hawley Lucas Kunce
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,650,953 1,243,022
Percentage 55.60% 41.80%
County results
Hawley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Kunce:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Josh Hawley
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Josh Hawley
Republican

Hawley was the favorite in the polls throughout the cycle though some polls showed a close race.[2][3] Kunce, who had previously run in the 2022 Missouri Senate election, losing narrowly in the Democratic primaries to Trudy Busch Valentine, was seen as a strong candidate who outpaced Hawley in fundraising for much of the race and outspent him in advertising. [4][5][6]

The two candidates participated in two debates—one alongside third-party opponents and a second one-on-one televised event. Both debates were marked by frequent attacks. Hawley criticized Kunce over an accidental shooting involving a reporter at a campaign event and his refusal to endorse a presidential candidate. Kunce countered by attacking Hawley’s involvement in objecting to the certification of the 2020 election and his opposition to abortion rights. Despite the contentious exchanges, the candidates found some common ground on border security and opposition to deploying U.S. troops to the Middle East.[7][8][9]

Hawley ultimately won re-election with a comfortable 55.6% of the vote to Kunce’s 41.8%, improving his 2018 margin by around 8 points. Despite his loss, Kunce outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points, while Hawley underperformed Donald Trump by nearly 3 points, making the race slightly closer than the concurrent presidential election.[10][11]

Background

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From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[12]

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.[12]

In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[13]

The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[14]

Most pollsters categorized this race as safe for the Republican Party.[15][16][17][18]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Josh Hawley
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Hawley (R) $22,492,767 $17,267,201 $5,701,081
Source: Federal Election Commission[22]

Results

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Republican primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Hawley (incumbent) 607,602 100.0%
Total votes 607,602 100.0%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrawn

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Endorsements

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Lucas Kunce
U.S. representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Karla May
State representatives
Local officials
Wesley Bell (withdrawn)
State officials
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
December Harmon (D) $16,524[f] $15,578 $945
Lucas Kunce (D) $11,193,778 $6,959,981 $4,241,078
Karla May (D) $53,962 $48,314 $5,647
Source: Federal Election Commission[22]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Mita
Biswas 		December
Harmon 		Lucas
Kunce 		Karla
May 		Undecided
Remington Research Group[A] July 10-11, 2024 600 (LV) – 1% 4% 39% 10% 46%

Results

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Results by county:
  Kunce
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  May
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lucas Kunce 255,775 67.64%
Democratic Karla May 87,908 23.25%
Democratic December Harmon 26,804 7.09%
Democratic Mita Biswas 7,647 2.02%
Total votes 378,134 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

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Declared

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  • Jared Young (Better Party), payroll services executive[68]
  • Nathan Kline (Green), executive assistant[69]
  • W. C. Young (Libertarian)[69]

Results

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Libertarian primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian W.C. Young 2,437 100.0%
Total votes 2,437 100.0%

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jared Young (I) $364,377[h] $253,727 $110,650
Source: Federal Election Commission[22]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Solid R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[16] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[70] Likely R August 26, 2024
Elections Daily[18] Safe R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[71] Solid R November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[72] Likely R August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[73] Safe R October 23, 2024
538[74] Solid R October 26, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

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Josh Hawley (R)
Individuals
Organizations
  • Missouri Farm Bureau PAC[76]
Lucas Kunce (D)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals
Jared Young (B)
U.S. Senators

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Josh
Hawley (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		Undecided
[i] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 51.3% 41.8% 6.9% Hawley +9.5%
TheHill/DDHQ through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 52.6% 44.5% 2.9% Hawley +8.1%
Average 52.0% 43.2% 4.8% Hawley +8.8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 41% 3%[j] 4%
ActiVote October 6–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44% – –
GQR (D)[B] October 23–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% – 5%
Emerson College[C] October 22–23, 2024 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 41% 2%[k] 7%
ActiVote September 1 – October 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46% – –
Emerson College[D] September 12–13, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Change Research September 11–13, 2024 1,237 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 41% 4% 9%
GQR Research (D)[E] September 6–12, 2024 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 46% 2% 2%
52% 48% – –
Remington Research Group (R)[A] September 4–5, 2024 816 (LV) – 52% 37% – 11%
YouGov/Saint Louis University August 8-16, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 42% – 4%
Emerson College June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 38% 5% 10%
Remington Research Group (R)[A] March 6–8, 2024 713 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 39% – 8%
Emerson College January 23–28, 2024 1,830 (RV) ± 2.2% 43% 30% 7% 20%
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 46% 42% 4% 8%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 32% 5% 17%
GQR Research (D)[E] August 16–19, 2023 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 43% – 12%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley (R) 		Wesley
Bell (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 34% 5% 17%

Debate

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2024 United States Senate election in Missouri debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Green Better
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Hawley Kunce Young Kline Young
1 Sep. 20, 2024 Missouri Press Association David Lieb YouTube P P N P P

Results

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2024 United States Senate election in Missouri[85]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Josh Hawley (incumbent) 1,639,599 55.6%
Democratic Lucas Kunce 1,234,231 41.8%
Libertarian W. C. Young 35,417 1.2%
Better Party Jared Young 20,919 0.7%
Green Nathan Kline 19,906 0.7%
Total votes 2,950,072 100.0%
Republican hold

Notes

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  1. ^ Bricklayers Administrative District Council of Missouri and Locals 1 and 15
  2. ^ Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and IAFF 2nd district and Local 2665
  3. ^ Locals 1, 27, and 63
  4. ^ Locals 264, 663, and 1290
  5. ^ Locals 8, 268, 314, 533, and 669
  6. ^ $6,102 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
  7. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ^ $245,000 of this total was self-funded by Young
  9. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  10. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  11. ^ Young (L) with 1%; Kline (G) with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Missouri Scout
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by IAFF Local 2665
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Kunce's campaign

References

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  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ^ "New poll finds Hawley leading Kunce by wide margin in Missouri Senate race". FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports. October 25, 2024. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
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  4. ^ "Missouri Primary Election Results". The New York Times. August 2, 2022. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  5. ^ Hancock, Jason (October 16, 2024). "Democrat Lucas Kunce outraises Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley • Missouri Independent". Missouri Independent. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  6. ^ Hancock, Jason. "Democrat Lucas Kunce raises twice as much money as incumbent Republican Josh Hawley". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  7. ^ Keller, Rudi (November 1, 2024). "Josh Hawley, Lucas Kunce trade insults in only televised debate of Missouri Senate race • Missouri Independent". Missouri Independent. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
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  10. ^ Baker, Michael. "Presidential election results 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  11. ^ Riley, Emily. "Senate election results 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
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  36. ^ a b Rosenbaum, Jason (July 20, 2023). "Missouri Democrats debate whether U.S. Senate primary is a help or hindrance". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
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  41. ^ a b Rosenbaum, Jason (June 7, 2023). "St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell announces U.S. Senate run". KWMU St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
  42. ^ a b Swift, Jim (March 14, 2023). "Challenger to Hawley: Quit Your 'Fake Populism'". The Bulwark. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  43. ^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  44. ^ a b Klein, Howie (January 6, 2023). "January 6— Lucas Kunce Launches His Campaign For Senate. What Better Day To Start The Process Of Removing Insurrectionist Josh Hawley?". Blue America PAC. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  45. ^ Drebes, Dave (January 19, 2024). "MOScout Daily Update: Senate Sickness, Trump Contra Roe, Pro-Choice Campaign Raises Over $1M, Burly's $400K, Kunce Chugs Along, and More". MOScout. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  46. ^ a b "Three unions endorse 'warrior for working people' Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  47. ^ Drebes, David (May 5, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Gardner Resigns, Brattin Protests, KC Building Trades for Kunce and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  48. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Missouri Fire Fighters endorse Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. June 5, 2023. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  49. ^ Drebes, Dave (May 25, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Chrismer in Senate '23, Keller to Lead Pro-Richey PAC, Club For Growth Coming, Kunce Gets Fire Fighters, and More". MOScout. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  50. ^ PFEM 2665 (@pfem2665) (August 30, 2023). "On Monday night members of @PFEM2665 continued our strong tradition of political action as we rallied for US Senate candidate @LucasKunceMO alongside @iaffdist2 VP Mark Woolbright. Thanks for leading the charge, brothers and sisters!". Twitter. Retrieved September 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
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  56. ^ Youngblood, Kaitlin (October 11, 2023). "SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council Announces Endorsement of Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". SEIU Healthcare. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
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Official campaign websites
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