Division of Bradfield

The Division of Bradfield is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

Bradfield Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of Bradfield in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election
Created	1949
MP	Paul Fletcher
Party	Liberal
Namesake	John Bradfield
Electors	108,573 (2022)
Area	101 km2 (39.0 sq mi)
Demographic	Inner metropolitan

History

John Bradfield, the division's namesake

Bradfield was created in the 1949 expansion of Parliament, and was named in honour of John Bradfield, the designer and builder of the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Its first member was Billy Hughes, a former Prime Minister of Australia and the last serving member of the first federal Parliament. The bulk of the seat was carved out of North Sydney, which Hughes represented from 1923 to 1949. After Hughes, its best-known member was Brendan Nelson, a minister in the third and fourth Howard governments and the federal Leader of the Opposition from 2007 to 2008. The current Member for Bradfield, since the 2009 Bradfield by-election, is Paul Fletcher, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.

Located in the traditional Liberal stronghold of Sydney's North Shore, Bradfield has been in Liberal hands for its entire existence, and for most of that time has been reckoned as a very safe Liberal seat. Most of the territory covered by the seat has been represented by centre-right MPs since Federation.

The Liberal hold on the seat has only been even remotely threatened twice. Af a 1952 by-election triggered by Hughes’ death, the Liberals were held to 58 percent of the two-party vote–the only time that Labor has come anywhere close to winning the seat. Even in 1952, the Liberals still won more than enough primary votes to retain the seat without the need for preferences.

In the 2022 federal election, Voices of Bradfield-endorsed independent candidate Nicolette Boele slashed the Liberal margin in the seat from 16.56% to 4.23%, turning Bradfield into a marginal seat on a two-candidate preferred basis for the first time in its history, amid the collapse of Liberal support in the North Shore. The swing against the Liberals was enough to drop the Liberal margin in a "traditional" two-party contest with Labor to 56 percent, the first time the seat has been marginal against Labor. The Liberal primary vote plummeted to 45.05%, the first time the Liberal Party received less than 50% of the primary vote in Bradfield. The primary vote swing against the Liberal Party of 15.28% was also the largest in the country.

Boundaries

Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.

The electorate is located in the upper North Shore and covers an area of approximately 101 km², covering the suburbs Castle Cove, East Killara, East Lindfield, Gordon, Killara, Lindfield, North Turramurra, North Wahroonga, Pymble, Roseville, Roseville Chase, South Turramurra, St Ives, St Ives Chase, Turramurra, Wahroonga, Waitara, Warrawee, and West Pymble; as well as parts of Asquith, Chatswood, Chatswood West, Hornsby, Mount Colah, and Normanhurst. The electorate has undergone minor boundary changes, with the latest redistribution in 2016 shifting slightly south, gaining Castle Cove and parts of Chatswood from North Sydney while losing parts of Thornleigh, Normanhurst and Hornsby.

Demographics

2021 Australian census
Ancestry
Response	Bradfield	NSW	Australia
English	26.6%	29.8%	33.0%
Chinese	24.5%	7.2%	5.5%
Australian	21.0%	28.6%	29.9%
Irish	8.0%	9.1%	9.5%
Scottish	7.7%	7.7%	8.6%
Other	12.2%
Country of birth
Response	Bradfield	NSW	Australia
Australia	51.8%	65.4%	66.9%
China	11.2%	3.1%	2.2%
England	4.4%	2.9%	3.6%
India	3.4%	2.6%	2.6%
Hong Kong	3.0%	0.6%	0.4%
South Africa	2.5%	0.6%	0.7%
Other	23.7%
Religious affiliation
No religion	40.3%	32.8%	38.4%
Catholicism	16.7%	22.4%	20.0%
Anglicanism	13.2%	11.9%	9.8%
Hinduism	4.3%	3.4%	2.7%
Other	25.5%
Language spoken at home
Australian English	58.6%	67.6%	72.0%
Mandarin	13.6%	3.4%	2.7%
Cantonese	6.0%	1.8%	1.2%
Korean	2.8%	0.8%	0.5%
Hindi	1.5%	1.0%	0.8%
Persian	1.4%	0.3%	0.3%
Other	16.1%

Members

	Image	Member	Party	Term	Notes
		Billy Hughes (1862–1952)	Liberal	10 December 1949 – 28 October 1952	Previously held the Division of North Sydney. Died in office. Currently the longest serving parliamentarian, as well as the oldest to have served
		Harry Turner (1905–1988)		20 December 1952 – 11 April 1974	Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Gordon. Retired
		David Connolly (1939–)		18 May 1974 – 29 January 1996	Lost preselection and retired
		Brendan Nelson (1958–)		2 March 1996 – 19 October 2009	Served as minister under Howard. Served as Opposition Leader from 2007 to 2008. Resigned to retire from politics
		Paul Fletcher (1965–)		5 December 2009 – present	Served as minister under Turnbull and Morrison. Incumbent

Election results

Main article: Electoral results for the Division of Bradfield

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales § Bradfield.[edit]

2022 Australian federal election: Bradfield

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Paul Fletcher	43,562	45.05	−15.28
	Independent	Nicolette Boele	20,198	20.89	+20.89
	Labor	David Brigden	16,902	17.48	−3.70
	Greens	Martin Cousins	8,960	9.27	−4.44
	Independent	Janine Kitson	3,018	3.12	+3.12
	United Australia	Rob Fletcher	2,496	2.58	+0.74
	One Nation	Michael Lowe	1,568	1.62	+1.62
Total formal votes			96,704	96.40	+0.45
Informal votes			3,616	3.60	−0.45
Turnout			100,320	92.43	−0.95
Notional two-party-preferred count
	Liberal	Paul Fletcher	54,685	56.55	−10.01
	Labor	David Brigden	42,019	43.45	+10.01
Two-candidate-preferred result
	Liberal	Paul Fletcher	52,447	54.23	−12.33
	Independent	Nicolette Boele	44,257	45.77	+45.77
	Liberal hold

Alluvial diagram for preference flows in the seat of Bradfield in the 2022 federal election. Y indicates at what stage the winning candidate had over 50% of the votes and was declared the winner.

External links

• Division of Bradfield - Australian Electoral Commission